docs(11-02): complete plan 11-02 - 置信度评估实现
- 新增三维度加权置信度计算方法 - 加权公式: 0.4*历史命中率 + 0.3*得分分布 + 0.3*集中度 - 数据量检查: 不足50期返回警告 - getPredictionV3返回结构扩展confidence字段
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@@ -155,8 +155,8 @@ Plans:
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**Plans**: 5 plans
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Plans:
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- [ ] 11-01-PLAN.md — 回测指标扩展（新增 NDCG@5、MRR、命中分布计算方法，扩展 _runBacktestV3 返回结构）
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- [ ] 11-02-PLAN.md — 置信度评估实现（新增 _calculateConfidence 及辅助方法，扩展 getPredictionV3 返回结构）
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- [x] 11-01-PLAN.md — 回测指标扩展（新增 NDCG@5、MRR、命中分布计算方法，扩展 _runBacktestV3 返回结构）
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- [x] 11-02-PLAN.md — 置信度评估实现（新增 _calculateConfidence 及辅助方法，扩展 getPredictionV3 返回结构）
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- [ ] 11-03-PLAN.md — 前端展示优化（更新 renderPredict 方法，展示置信度、NDCG、MRR、命中分布柱状图）
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- [ ] 11-04-PLAN.md — 权重网格搜索优化（新增 _optimizeWeightsGridSearch 方法，新增 optimizeWeights 接口入口）
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- [ ] 11-05-PLAN.md — 二阶马尔可夫转移概率增强（新增 _getTransitionMatrix2ndOrder、_calcTransitionScore2ndOrder 方法，根据数据量自动选择阶数）
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@@ -180,4 +180,4 @@ Phases execute in numeric order: 1 → 2 → 3 → 4 → 5 → 6 → 7 → 8 →
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| 8. 和值分析 | 0/0 | Not planned | - |
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| 9. 连号分析 | 0/0 | Not planned | - |
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| 10. 尾数分析 | 0/0 | Not planned | - |
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| 11. predictV3算法优化 | 0/5 | Planned | - |
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| 11. predictV3算法优化 | 2/5 | Executing | - |
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+4
-3
@@ -4,14 +4,14 @@ milestone: v1.0
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milestone_name: milestone
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status: verifying
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stopped_at: context exhaustion at 95% (2026-04-30)
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last_updated: "2026-05-01T07:10:32.046Z"
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last_updated: "2026-05-01T07:13:49.247Z"
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last_activity: 2026-05-01
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progress:
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total_phases: 11
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completed_phases: 1
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total_plans: 8
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completed_plans: 4
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percent: 50
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completed_plans: 5
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percent: 63
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---
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# Project State
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@@ -51,6 +51,7 @@ Progress: [█████░░░░░] 50%
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- N/A (no completed plans yet)
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| Phase 11-predictv3 P01 | 5min | 3 tasks | 1 files |
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| Phase 11-predictv3 P02 | 2min | 2 tasks | 1 files |
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## Accumulated Context
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@@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
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---
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phase: 11-predictv3
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plan: 02
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subsystem: prediction
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tags: [confidence, prediction, evaluation, metrics]
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dependencies:
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requires: [11-01]
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provides: [confidence_evaluation]
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affects: [getPredictionV3]
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tech_stack:
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added: [confidence_calculation, weighted_scoring]
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patterns: [multi_dimension_weighted_average, data_threshold_check]
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key_files:
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created: []
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modified:
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- path: application/admin/model/History.php
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changes:
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- 新增 _calculateConfidence 方法
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- 新增 _getHistoricalHitRateByRank 方法
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- 新增 _getScoreDistributionConfidence 方法
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- 新增 _getScoreConcentration 方法
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- getPredictionV3 新增 confidence 字段返回
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key_decisions:
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- 三维度加权公式: 0.4*历史命中率 + 0.3*得分分布 + 0.3*集中度
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- 数据量阈值设为50期，不足时返回警告并使用估算
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- 置信度阈值: >=70%高、50-70%中、<50%低
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- 无回测数据时使用排名估算公式: 1 - (rank-1)*0.15
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metrics:
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duration: 5min
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tasks_completed: 2
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files_modified: 1
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lines_added: 180
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completed_at: "2026-05-01T07:15:00Z"
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---
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# Phase 11 - Plan 02: 置信度评估实现 Summary
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## 一句话总结
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为预测结果添加三维度加权置信度评估，帮助用户判断预测可靠性。
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## 实现内容
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### Task 1: 置信度核心计算方法
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在 `History.php` 中新增 4 个方法:
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| 方法 | 功能 |
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|------|------|
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| `_calculateConfidence` | 主计算方法，返回置信度分数和整体置信度 |
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| `_getHistoricalHitRateByRank` | 基于历史排名统计命中率 |
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| `_getScoreDistributionConfidence` | 计算得分在 Top5 中的分布比例 |
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| `_getScoreConcentration` | 计算得分集中度（与平均值的差距） |
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**加权公式:**
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```
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confidence = 0.4 * 历史命中率 + 0.3 * 得分分布 + 0.3 * 得分集中度
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```
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**数据量检查:**
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- 回测数据不足 50 期时返回 `data_warning` 警告
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- 无回测数据时使用估算公式: `1 - (rank-1) * 0.15`
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### Task 2: getPredictionV3 集成
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在 `getPredictionV3` 返回结构中新增 `confidence` 字段:
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```php
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return [
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'predictions' => $predictions,
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// ... 其他字段 ...
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'confidence' => $confidence // 新增
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];
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```
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`confidence` 结构:
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```php
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[
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'confidence_scores' => [...], // 各号码置信度详情
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'overall_confidence' => 65.5, // Top5 平均置信度
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'data_warning' => null // 数据不足警告
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]
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```
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## Deviations from Plan
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None - plan executed exactly as written.
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## Verification Results
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所有验收标准满足:
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- `_calculateConfidence` 方法已实现
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- `_getHistoricalHitRateByRank` 方法已实现
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- `_getScoreDistributionConfidence` 方法已实现
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- `_getScoreConcentration` 方法已实现
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- `minDataThreshold` 参数存在（50期阈值）
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- `score_concentration` 在返回结构中存在
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- `getPredictionV3` 返回结构包含 `confidence` 字段
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- 所有方法包含函数级注释
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## Self-Check: PASSED
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- 文件已修改: application/admin/model/History.php
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- 提交已创建: 663d83c
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- 所有方法已实现并包含注释
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