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b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/.gitkeep new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e69de29 diff --git a/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-01-PLAN.md b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-01-PLAN.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..64026c6 --- /dev/null +++ b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-01-PLAN.md @@ -0,0 +1,328 @@ +--- +phase: 11-predictv3 +plan: 01 +type: execute +wave: 1 +depends_on: [] +files_modified: + - application/admin/model/History.php +autonomous: true +requirements: + - PRED-02 + - PRED-05 +must_haves: + truths: + - "用户可以在回测结果中看到 NDCG@5 指标" + - "用户可以在回测结果中看到 MRR 指标" + - "用户可以看到各排名位置的命中分布统计" + - "系统在数据不足时返回合理的默认值或提示" + artifacts: + - path: "application/admin/model/History.php" + provides: "NDCG、MRR、命中分布计算方法" + contains: "_calculateNDCG|_calculateMRR|_calculateHitDistribution" + key_links: + - from: "_runBacktestV3" + to: "_calculateNDCG, _calculateMRR, _calculateHitDistribution" + via: "method call in return statement" +--- + +# Phase 11 - Plan 01: 回测指标扩展 + +## Objective + +扩展 `_runBacktestV3` 方法的回测指标,新增 NDCG@5、MRR、命中率分布等排名质量评估指标,提升算法评估能力。 + +**Purpose:** 当前回测仅返回命中率(Top5)和平均排名,缺少排名质量评估指标。NDCG、MRR 是成熟的推荐系统评估指标,能更全面反映预测排名质量。 + +**Output:** `History.php` 中新增 3 个计算方法,`_runBacktestV3` 返回结果扩展。 + +## Tasks + +### Task 1: 实现 NDCG@5 计算(含空预测保护和公式文档) + + +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (line 3495-3560, _runBacktestV3 方法) + + + +在 `History.php` 文件末尾(类内)新增 `_calculateNDCG` 方法: + +```php +/** + * 计算 NDCG@K (Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain) + * + * 公式说明: + * - DCG (Discounted Cumulative Gain) = Σ(rel_i / log2(rank_i + 1)) + * 其中 rel_i = 1 (命中) 或 0 (未命中),rank_i 为预测排名位置 + * - IDCG (Ideal DCG) = Σ(1 / log2(i + 1)) for i = 1..min(hits, K) + * 即理想情况下所有命中的号码都排在最前面的DCG值 + * - NDCG = DCG / IDCG,范围 0-1,越接近1表示排名质量越好 + * + * @param array $backtestDetails 回测详情数组,每项包含 {hit: bool, rank: int} + * @param int $K Top-K 参数,默认5,评估前K个预测位置的排名质量 + * @return float NDCG值 (0-1范围),空数据时返回0 + */ +private function _calculateNDCG($backtestDetails, $K = 5) +{ + // 边缘情况处理:空预测或无效参数 + if (empty($backtestDetails) || $K <= 0) { + return 0; + } + + $dcg = 0; + $idcg = 0; + + // 计算 DCG: 命中号码的排名折损累积值 + foreach ($backtestDetails as $detail) { + if (!isset($detail['hit']) || !isset($detail['rank'])) { + continue; // 跳过无效数据 + } + if ($detail['hit'] && $detail['rank'] > 0 && $detail['rank'] <= $K) { + // DCG公式: rel / log2(rank + 1),命中时 rel=1 + $dcg += 1 / log($detail['rank'] + 1, 2); + } + } + + // 计算 IDCG: 最理想情况下所有命中的 DCG(假设都排在第1位) + $hitCount = 0; + foreach ($backtestDetails as $detail) { + if (isset($detail['hit']) && $detail['hit']) { + $hitCount++; + } + } + + for ($i = 1; $i <= min($hitCount, $K); $i++) { + $idcg += 1 / log($i + 1, 2); + } + + // 返回标准化值,IDCG为0时返回0避免除零错误 + return $idcg > 0 ? round($dcg / $idcg, 4) : 0; +} +``` + +实现要点: +- 公式:DCG = Σ(1/log2(rank+1)),IDCG = Σ(1/log2(i+1)) for i=1..hits +- 添加空预测保护:检查 $backtestDetails 是否为空 +- 添加数据完整性检查:确保 hit 和 rank 字段存在 +- 使用 log(rank + 1, 2) 作为折损函数,排名越靠前权重越高 +- 返回 0-1 范围的标准化值,越接近 1 表示排名质量越好 + + + +- grep 正则匹配: `_calculateNDCG\s*\(` 在 History.php 中存在 +- grep 匹配: `empty($backtestDetails)` 在方法中存在(空预测保护) +- 方法返回 float 类型值 +- 包含函数级注释说明 NDCG 计算逻辑和公式 + + +### Task 2: 实现 MRR 和命中分布计算(含边缘情况处理) + + +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (新增的 _calculateNDCG 方法位置) + + + +在 `_calculateNDCG` 方法后继续新增 `_calculateMRR` 和 `_calculateHitDistribution` 方法: + +```php +/** + * 计算 MRR (Mean Reciprocal Rank) + * 平均倒数排名,关注命中号码的具体排名位置 + * + * 公式说明: + * - MRR = Σ(1/rank_i) / N,其中 rank_i 为命中号码的排名,N 为测试总数 + * - 未命中的测试项贡献 0 到倒数排名 + * - MRR 范围 0-1,越接近1表示命中号码平均排名越靠前 + * + * @param array $backtestDetails 回测详情数组,每项包含 {hit: bool, rank: int} + * @return float MRR值 (0-1范围),空数据时返回0 + */ +private function _calculateMRR($backtestDetails) +{ + // 边缘情况处理:空预测 + if (empty($backtestDetails)) { + return 0; + } + + $reciprocalRanks = []; + + foreach ($backtestDetails as $detail) { + if (!isset($detail['hit']) || !isset($detail['rank'])) { + continue; // 跳过无效数据 + } + if ($detail['hit'] && $detail['rank'] > 0) { + $reciprocalRanks[] = 1 / $detail['rank']; + } else { + $reciprocalRanks[] = 0; // 未命中记为0 + } + } + + return count($reciprocalRanks) > 0 + ? round(array_sum($reciprocalRanks) / count($reciprocalRanks), 4) + : 0; +} + +/** + * 计算命中率分布 + * 统计各排名位置(1-5)的命中次数分布 + * + * 结构定义: + * - 返回格式: {rank_1: n, rank_2: n, rank_3: n, rank_4: n, rank_5: n} + * - rank_N 表示预测排名第N位的命中次数 + * - 用于前端柱状图可视化展示 + * + * @param array $backtestDetails 回测详情数组,每项包含 {hit: bool, rank: int} + * @return array 各排名(1-5)的命中次数统计,键名为 rank_1 到 rank_5 + */ +private function _calculateHitDistribution($backtestDetails) +{ + // 边缘情况处理:空预测返回全0分布 + if (empty($backtestDetails)) { + return [ + 'rank_1' => 0, + 'rank_2' => 0, + 'rank_3' => 0, + 'rank_4' => 0, + 'rank_5' => 0 + ]; + } + + // 初始化分布数组,键名使用 rank_N 格式便于前端解析 + $distribution = [ + 'rank_1' => 0, + 'rank_2' => 0, + 'rank_3' => 0, + 'rank_4' => 0, + 'rank_5' => 0 + ]; + + foreach ($backtestDetails as $detail) { + if (!isset($detail['hit']) || !isset($detail['rank'])) { + continue; // 跳过无效数据 + } + if ($detail['hit'] && $detail['rank'] >= 1 && $detail['rank'] <= 5) { + $key = 'rank_' . $detail['rank']; + $distribution[$key]++; + } + } + + return $distribution; +} +``` + +实现要点: +- MRR: 命中号码排名倒数平均值,公式 Σ(1/rank)/N +- 命中分布: 明确结构为 `{rank_1: n, rank_2: n, ..., rank_5: n}` +- 两个方法均添加空预测保护和无效数据跳过逻辑 +- hit_distribution 使用 rank_N 键名格式,便于前端柱状图渲染 + + + +- grep 正则匹配: `_calculateMRR\s*\(` 在 History.php 中存在 +- grep 正则匹配: `_calculateHitDistribution\s*\(` 在 History.php 中存在 +- grep 匹配: `empty($backtestDetails)` 在两个方法中均存在(空预测保护) +- grep 匹配: `rank_1|rank_2|rank_3|rank_4|rank_5` 在 _calculateHitDistribution 中存在 +- 两个方法均包含函数级注释 + + +### Task 3: 扩展 _runBacktestV3 返回结果(含数据量检查) + + +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (line 3549-3556, _runBacktestV3 返回语句) + + + +修改 `_runBacktestV3` 方法的返回语句,在原有返回结构中添加新指标和数据量验证: + +找到以下代码段(约 line 3549-3556): +```php +return [ + 'hit_rate' => $hitRate, + 'avg_rank' => $avgRank, + 'total_tests' => $testCount, + 'total_hits' => $hits, + 'details' => $details +]; +``` + +替换为: +```php +// 计算新增指标(添加数据量检查) +$minDataThreshold = 50; // 置信度计算最小数据量阈值 + +// 如果测试数据不足,返回默认值并添加警告 +if ($testCount < $minDataThreshold) { + $ndcg5 = 0; + $mrr = 0; + $hitDistribution = [ + 'rank_1' => 0, + 'rank_2' => 0, + 'rank_3' => 0, + 'rank_4' => 0, + 'rank_5' => 0 + ]; + $dataWarning = '回测数据不足(' . $testCount . '期),建议至少50期以获得可靠指标'; +} else { + $ndcg5 = $this->_calculateNDCG($details, 5); + $mrr = $this->_calculateMRR($details); + $hitDistribution = $this->_calculateHitDistribution($details); + $dataWarning = null; +} + +$precision5 = $testCount > 0 ? round($hits / ($testCount * 5) * 100, 2) : 0; + +return [ + 'hit_rate' => $hitRate, + 'avg_rank' => $avgRank, + 'total_tests' => $testCount, + 'total_hits' => $hits, + 'details' => $details, + // 新增排名质量指标 + 'ndcg_5' => $ndcg5, + 'mrr' => $mrr, + 'hit_distribution' => $hitDistribution, + 'precision_5' => $precision5, + // 数据量警告(不足时提示) + 'data_warning' => $dataWarning, + 'data_sufficient' => $testCount >= $minDataThreshold +]; +``` + +注意: +- 新增指标计算放在 return 语句之前,确保 $details 数组已完整构建 +- 添加最小数据量检查(50期),不足时返回默认值和警告提示 +- 新增 data_warning 和 data_sufficient 字段供前端展示 + + + +- grep 匹配: `ndcg_5` 在 _runBacktestV3 返回结构中存在 +- grep 匹配: `mrr` 在 _runBacktestV3 返回结构中存在 +- grep 匹配: `hit_distribution` 在 _runBacktestV3 返回结构中存在 +- grep 匹配: `precision_5` 在 _runBacktestV3 返回结构中存在 +- grep 匹配: `data_warning` 在 _runBacktestV3 返回结构中存在 +- grep 匹配: `minDataThreshold` 变量在方法中存在 + + +## Verification + +执行预测接口验证新指标返回: + +```bash +curl -s "http://127.0.0.1:8000/admin/history/predictV3?periods=200&backtest=10" | grep -E "ndcg_5|mrr|hit_distribution|precision_5|data_warning" +``` + +预期结果:返回 JSON 中包含 ndcg_5、mrr、hit_distribution、precision_5、data_warning 字段。 + +## Success Criteria + +1. `_calculateNDCG`、`_calculateMRR`、`_calculateHitDistribution` 三个方法已实现 +2. 所有计算方法包含空预测保护和数据完整性检查 +3. NDCG 公式在注释中完整说明:DCG = Σ(1/log2(rank+1)) +4. hit_distribution 结构明确为 `{rank_1..rank_5: counts}` 格式 +5. `_runBacktestV3` 返回结构包含 ndcg_5、mrr、hit_distribution、precision_5、data_warning 字段 +6. 添加数据量检查,不足50期时返回警告 +7. 所有新增方法包含函数级注释 + +## Output + +完成后创建 `.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-01-SUMMARY.md` \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-02-PLAN.md b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-02-PLAN.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..446b1bc --- /dev/null +++ b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-02-PLAN.md @@ -0,0 +1,325 @@ +--- +phase: 11-predictv3 +plan: 02 +type: execute +wave: 1 +depends_on: [] +files_modified: + - application/admin/model/History.php +autonomous: true +requirements: + - PRED-01 +must_haves: + truths: + - "用户可以看到每个预测号码的置信度百分比" + - "用户可以看到 Top5 预测的整体置信度" + - "置信度基于历史命中率、得分集中度、得分分布三个维度计算" + - "系统在数据不足时提供合理的置信度估算" + artifacts: + - path: "application/admin/model/History.php" + provides: "置信度计算方法" + contains: "_calculateConfidence|_getHistoricalHitRateByRank|_getScoreDistributionConfidence|_getScoreConcentration" + key_links: + - from: "getPredictionV3" + to: "_calculateConfidence" + via: "method call before return" +--- + +# Phase 11 - Plan 02: 置信度评估实现 + +## Objective + +为预测结果添加置信度评估,帮助用户判断预测可靠性。置信度基于历史排名命中率、得分分布、得分集中度三个维度计算。 + +**Purpose:** 当前预测结果只有排名和得分,缺少置信度指标。用户无法判断预测结果的可信程度,置信度评估能有效辅助用户决策。 + +**Output:** `History.php` 中新增置信度计算方法,`getPredictionV3` 返回结果扩展 confidence 字段。 + +## Tasks + +### Task 1: 实现置信度核心计算方法(含明确维度定义和数据量检查) + + +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (line 2436-2444, getPredictionV3 返回语句) +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (line 3495-3556, _runBacktestV3 方法) + + + +在 `History.php` 类末尾新增置信度计算相关方法: + +```php +/** + * 计算预测置信度 + * + * 置信度组成(三个维度加权平均): + * - 维度1: 历史排名命中率 (权重0.4) - 基于回测数据统计各排名位置的命中率 + * - 维度2: 得分分布置信度 (权重0.3) - 当前号码得分与Top5得分范围的比例关系 + * - 维度3: 得分集中度 (权重0.3) - Top5得分与平均得分的差距,差距越大置信度越高 + * + * 加权公式: + * confidence = 0.4 * historical_hit_rate + 0.3 * score_distribution + 0.3 * score_concentration + * + * 阈值定义: + * - 高置信度: >= 70% (绿色展示) + * - 中置信度: 50-70% (橙色展示) + * - 低置信度: < 50% (红色展示) + * + * @param array $predictions 预测结果数组(Top5) + * @param array $backtest 回测结果 + * @param array $scoresAll 所有号码得分详情(可选,用于集中度计算) + * @param int $minDataThreshold 最小数据量阈值,默认50期 + * @return array {confidence_scores: [], overall_confidence: float, data_warning: string|null} + */ +private function _calculateConfidence($predictions, $backtest, $scoresAll = null, $minDataThreshold = 50) +{ + // 数据量检查 + $dataWarning = null; + $hasBacktest = $backtest && !empty($backtest['details']) && $backtest['total_tests'] > 0; + + if (!$hasBacktest || $backtest['total_tests'] < $minDataThreshold) { + $dataWarning = '回测数据不足(' . ($backtest['total_tests'] ?? 0) . '期),置信度基于估算,建议至少50期'; + } + + $confidenceScores = []; + + // 计算Top5平均得分(用于集中度计算) + $avgScore = 0; + if (!empty($predictions)) { + $totalScore = array_sum(array_column($predictions, 'score')); + $avgScore = $totalScore / count($predictions); + } + + foreach ($predictions as $idx => $pred) { + $rank = $idx + 1; + $num = $pred['num']; + $score = $pred['score']; + + // 维度1: 历史排名命中率 (权重0.4) + $rankHitRate = $this->_getHistoricalHitRateByRank($rank, $backtest); + + // 维度2: 得分分布置信度 (权重0.3) - 得分比例 + $scoreDistribution = $this->_getScoreDistributionConfidence($score, $predictions); + + // 维度3: 得分集中度 (权重0.3) - Top得分与平均得分的差距比例 + $scoreConcentration = $this->_getScoreConcentration($score, $avgScore, $predictions); + + // 综合置信度(加权平均) + $overallConfidence = $rankHitRate * 0.4 + $scoreDistribution * 0.3 + $scoreConcentration * 0.3; + + $confidenceScores[] = [ + 'num' => $num, + 'rank' => $rank, + 'confidence' => round($overallConfidence * 100, 1), + 'rank_hit_rate' => round($rankHitRate * 100, 1), + 'score_distribution' => round($scoreDistribution * 100, 1), + 'score_concentration' => round($scoreConcentration * 100, 1) + ]; + } + + // 整体置信度(Top5平均) + $overallConfidence = count($confidenceScores) > 0 + ? round(array_sum(array_column($confidenceScores, 'confidence')) / count($confidenceScores), 1) + : 0; + + return [ + 'confidence_scores' => $confidenceScores, + 'overall_confidence' => $overallConfidence, + 'data_warning' => $dataWarning + ]; +} + +/** + * 基于历史排名获取命中率 + * + * 计算方法: + * - 有回测数据时: 统计各排名的历史命中次数 / 总测试次数 + * - 无回测数据时: 根据排名估算,排名越靠前置信度越高 + * 估算公式: 1 - (rank - 1) * 0.15,即第1名估算85%,第5名估算25% + * + * @param int $rank 排名位置 (1-5) + * @param array $backtest 回测结果 + * @return float 该排名的历史命中率 (0-1) + */ +private function _getHistoricalHitRateByRank($rank, $backtest) +{ + if (!$backtest || empty($backtest['details']) || $backtest['total_tests'] == 0) { + // 无回测数据时,根据排名估算(排名越靠前置信度越高) + // 估算公式: 1 - (rank - 1) * 0.15 + // 第1名: 1.0, 第2名: 0.85, 第3名: 0.70, 第4名: 0.55, 第5名: 0.40 + return max(0, 1 - ($rank - 1) * 0.15); + } + + // 统计各排名的历史命中次数 + $rankHits = array_fill(1, 5, 0); + foreach ($backtest['details'] as $detail) { + if ($detail['hit'] && $detail['rank'] >= 1 && $detail['rank'] <= 5) { + $rankHits[$detail['rank']]++; + } + } + + $totalTests = $backtest['total_tests']; + return $totalTests > 0 ? $rankHits[$rank] / $totalTests : 0; +} + +/** + * 计算得分分布置信度 + * + * 计算方法: + * - 得分比例 = (score - bottomScore) / (topScore - bottomScore) + * - 得分越接近第一名,置信度越高 + * - 所有得分相同时返回1 + * + * @param float $score 当前号码得分 + * @param array $predictions 所有预测结果 + * @return float 得分置信度 (0-1) + */ +private function _getScoreDistributionConfidence($score, $predictions) +{ + if (empty($predictions)) return 0; + + $topScore = $predictions[0]['score']; + $bottomScore = end($predictions)['score']; + + if ($topScore == $bottomScore) return 1; // 所有得分相同 + + // 得分比例:(score - bottom) / (top - bottom) + $ratio = ($score - $bottomScore) / ($topScore - $bottomScore); + return max(0, min(1, $ratio)); +} + +/** + * 计算得分集中度 + * + * 计算方法: + * - 集中度 = (score - avgScore) / (topScore - avgScore) 如果 score > avgScore + * - 集中度 = 0 如果 score <= avgScore + * - Top得分与平均得分差距越大,集中度越高,表示预测结果区分度明显 + * + * @param float $score 当前号码得分 + * @param float $avgScore Top5平均得分 + * @param array $predictions 所有预测结果 + * @return float 集中度置信度 (0-1) + */ +private function _getScoreConcentration($score, $avgScore, $predictions) +{ + if (empty($predictions)) return 0; + + $topScore = $predictions[0]['score']; + + // 如果得分低于平均,集中度为0 + if ($score <= $avgScore) { + return 0; + } + + // 如果Top得分等于平均,所有得分相同,集中度为0.5 + if ($topScore == $avgScore) { + return $score == $topScore ? 0.5 : 0; + } + + // 集中度 = (score - avg) / (top - avg) + $concentration = ($score - $avgScore) / ($topScore - $avgScore); + return max(0, min(1, $concentration)); +} +``` + +实现要点: +- **维度重命名**:将"多维度一致性"改为"得分集中度",更明确地表示Top得分与平均得分的差距 +- **加权公式明确**:`confidence = 0.4*历史命中率 + 0.3*得分分布 + 0.3*得分集中度` +- **数据量检查**:回测数据不足50期时返回警告 +- **阈值明确**:>=70%高、50-70%中、<50%低 +- **无数据fallback**:回测缺失时使用估算公式 + + + +- grep 正则匹配: `_calculateConfidence\s*\(` 在 History.php 中存在 +- grep 正则匹配: `_getHistoricalHitRateByRank\s*\(` 在 History.php 中存在 +- grep 正则匹配: `_getScoreDistributionConfidence\s*\(` 在 History.php 中存在 +- grep 正则匹配: `_getScoreConcentration\s*\(` 在 History.php 中存在(替代原_getDimensionConsistency) +- grep 匹配: `minDataThreshold` 在方法中存在(数据量阈值) +- grep 匹配: `score_concentration` 在返回结构中存在(替代原consistency) +- 所有方法包含函数级注释,注释中包含加权公式说明 + + +### Task 2: 在 getPredictionV3 中调用置信度计算(含数据量传递) + + +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (line 2413-2444, getPredictionV3 返回部分) + + + +在 `getPredictionV3` 方法中,找到以下代码段(约 line 2413-2444): + +```php +// ====== 10. 历史回测验证 ====== +$backtest = $skipBacktest ? null : $this->_runBacktestV3($periods, $weights, $backtestCount, $cutoffTime); + +// 计算命中情况 +$hitInfo = null; +... +return [ + 'predictions' => $predictions, + ... +]; +``` + +在 `$backtest` 计算后、`$hitInfo` 计算前,插入置信度计算代码: + +```php +// ====== 10. 历史回测验证 ====== +$backtest = $skipBacktest ? null : $this->_runBacktestV3($periods, $weights, $backtestCount, $cutoffTime); + +// ====== 11. 置信度评估(新增)====== +// 最小数据量阈值设为50期,不足时置信度基于估算 +$minDataThreshold = 50; +$confidence = $this->_calculateConfidence($predictions, $backtest, null, $minDataThreshold); + +// 计算命中情况 +$hitInfo = null; +... +``` + +并修改返回结构,添加 `confidence` 字段: + +```php +return [ + 'predictions' => $predictions, + 'last_special' => $lastSpecial, + 'last_expect' => $lastExpect, + 'analysis' => $analysis, + 'actual_result' => $actualResult, + 'hit_info' => $hitInfo, + 'backtest' => $backtest, + 'confidence' => $confidence // 新增置信度字段 +]; +``` + + + +- grep 匹配: `_calculateConfidence` 在 getPredictionV3 方法中被调用 +- grep 匹配: `$minDataThreshold` 在 getPredictionV3 中存在 +- grep 匹配: `'confidence'` 在 getPredictionV3 返回结构中存在 +- 置信度计算在回测验证之后执行 + + +## Verification + +执行预测接口验证置信度字段返回: + +```bash +curl -s "http://127.0.0.1:8000/admin/history/predictV3?periods=200&backtest=10" | grep -E "confidence|overall_confidence|confidence_scores|score_concentration" +``` + +预期结果:返回 JSON 中包含 confidence、overall_confidence、confidence_scores、score_concentration 字段。 + +## Success Criteria + +1. `_calculateConfidence` 及 4 个辅助方法已实现 +2. 置信度维度重命名为:历史排名命中率、得分分布、得分集中度 +3. 加权公式在注释中明确:`confidence = 0.4*历史 + 0.3*分布 + 0.3*集中度` +4. 添加数据量检查,不足50期时返回警告 +5. `getPredictionV3` 返回结构包含 confidence 字段 +6. 所有新增方法包含函数级注释 + +## Output + +完成后创建 `.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-02-SUMMARY.md` \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-03-PLAN.md b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-03-PLAN.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f1eaa5f --- /dev/null +++ b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-03-PLAN.md @@ -0,0 +1,278 @@ +--- +phase: 11-predictv3 +plan: 03 +type: execute +wave: 2 +depends_on: + - 11-01 + - 11-02 +files_modified: + - public/assets/js/backend/history.js +autonomous: true +requirements: + - PRED-01 + - PRED-02 +must_haves: + truths: + - "用户可以在预测弹窗中看到每个号码的置信度百分比" + - "用户可以在回测结果区域看到 NDCG@5 和 MRR 指标" + - "用户可以看到各排名位置的命中分布柱状图" + - "用户可以看到数据不足时的警告提示" + artifacts: + - path: "public/assets/js/backend/history.js" + provides: "置信度和新回测指标前端展示" + contains: "renderPredict|confidence|ndcg_5|mrr|hit_distribution|data_warning" + key_links: + - from: "renderPredict" + to: "backtest.ndcg_5, backtest.mrr, confidence, backtest.data_warning" + via: "property access in rendering logic" +--- + +# Phase 11 - Plan 03: 前端展示优化 + +## Objective + +更新前端 `renderPredict` 方法,展示新增的置信度指标和扩展的回测指标(NDCG、MRR、命中分布、数据警告)。 + +**Purpose:** 后端已计算置信度和新回测指标,前端需要将这些数据可视化呈现给用户,提升预测结果的可读性和决策辅助价值。 + +**Output:** `history.js` 中的 `renderPredict` 方法扩展,新增置信度展示区域和回测指标扩展展示。 + +## Tasks + +### Task 1: 添加置信度展示区域(含数据警告提示) + + +- D:\code\php\amlhc\public\assets\js\backend\history.js (line 1700-1871, renderPredict 方法) + + + +在 `renderPredict` 方法中,找到以下变量声明位置(约 line 1701): + +```javascript +var predictions = data.predictions || []; +var analysis = data.analysis || {}; +var hitInfo = data.hit_info || null; +var actualResult = data.actual_result || null; +var backtest = data.backtest || null; +``` + +在 `backtest` 声明后添加 `confidence` 变量: + +```javascript +var confidence = data.confidence || null; +``` + +然后在回测验证结果展示区域(约 line 1732-1751)之前,插入置信度展示区域: + +在 line 1732 之前(即 `// 回测验证结果` 注释之前)插入: + +```javascript +// 置信度评估展示(V2和V3版本) +if (confidence && (version === 'v2' || version === 'v3')) { + html += '
'; + html += '
预测置信度评估
'; + + // 数据警告提示(数据不足时显示) + if (confidence.data_warning) { + html += '
' + confidence.data_warning + '
'; + } + + html += '
'; + html += '
' + confidence.overall_confidence + '%
整体置信度
'; + + // 各排名置信度(使用得分集中度维度) + if (confidence.confidence_scores && confidence.confidence_scores.length > 0) { + html += '
'; + for (var i = 0; i < confidence.confidence_scores.length; i++) { + var cs = confidence.confidence_scores[i]; + // 阈值定义:>=70%高(绿)、50-70%中(橙)、<50%低(红) + var confLevel = cs.confidence >= 70 ? '高' : (cs.confidence >= 50 ? '中' : '低'); + var confColor = cs.confidence >= 70 ? '#4caf50' : (cs.confidence >= 50 ? '#ff9800' : '#f44336'); + html += '
'; + html += '
' + cs.confidence + '%
'; + html += '
#' + cs.rank + '
'; + html += '
'; + } + html += '
'; + } + html += '
'; +} +``` + +实现要点: +- 整体置信度以大数字展示,各排名置信度以小卡片形式横向排列 +- 置信度分三级:高(>=70%, 绿色)、中(50-70%, 橙色)、低(<50%, 红色) +- 只在 V2 和 V3 版本中显示 +- 新增 data_warning 展示:数据不足时显示红色警告提示 +
+ + +- grep 匹配: `confidence.overall_confidence` 在 history.js renderPredict 方法中存在 +- grep 匹配: `confidence.confidence_scores` 在 history.js renderPredict 方法中存在 +- grep 匹配: `confidence.data_warning` 在 history.js renderPredict 方法中存在 +- grep 匹配: `confLevel` 和 `confColor` 变量在 history.js 中存在 +- 置信度展示区域在回测验证结果之前显示 + + +### Task 2: 扩展回测指标展示区域(含数据警告和命中分布柱状图) + + +- D:\code\php\amlhc\public\assets\js\backend\history.js (line 1732-1751, 回测验证结果展示区域) + + + +在 `renderPredict` 方法中,找到回测验证结果展示区域(约 line 1732-1751),现有代码展示命中率、命中次数、平均排名三个指标。 + +找到以下代码段: + +```javascript +html += '
'; +html += '
' + backtest.hit_rate + '%
命中率(Top5)
'; +html += '
' + backtest.total_hits + '/' + backtest.total_tests + '
命中次数
'; +html += '
' + (backtest.avg_rank || '—') + '
平均排名
'; +html += '
'; +``` + +替换为: + +```javascript +// 回测数据警告提示 +if (backtest.data_warning) { + html += '
' + backtest.data_warning + '
'; +} + +html += '
'; +html += '
' + backtest.hit_rate + '%
命中率(Top5)
'; +html += '
' + backtest.total_hits + '/' + backtest.total_tests + '
命中次数
'; +html += '
' + (backtest.avg_rank || '—') + '
平均排名
'; + +// 新增指标:NDCG@5 和 MRR(百分比展示) +if (backtest.ndcg_5 !== undefined) { + html += '
' + (backtest.ndcg_5 * 100).toFixed(1) + '%
NDCG@5
'; +} +if (backtest.mrr !== undefined) { + html += '
' + (backtest.mrr * 100).toFixed(1) + '%
MRR
'; +} + +// 转移概率阶数显示(来自11-05的transition_order字段) +if (analysis && analysis.transition_order !== undefined) { + html += '
' + analysis.transition_order + '阶
转移概率
'; +} +html += ''; + +// 命中分布柱状图(使用rank_1..rank_5键名) +if (backtest.hit_distribution && Object.keys(backtest.hit_distribution).length > 0) { + var distribution = backtest.hit_distribution; + var maxHit = 0; + // 找最大值用于计算柱状图高度比例 + for (var r = 1; r <= 5; r++) { + var key = 'rank_' + r; + if (distribution[key] > maxHit) { + maxHit = distribution[key]; + } + } + + html += '
命中分布(各排名命中次数):
'; + html += '
'; + for (var r = 1; r <= 5; r++) { + var key = 'rank_' + r; + var hitCount = distribution[key] || 0; + var barHeight = maxHit > 0 ? (hitCount / maxHit * 45) : 0; + var barColor = hitCount > 0 ? '#4caf50' : '#e0e0e0'; + html += '
'; + html += '
'; + html += '
#' + r + '
'; + html += '
' + hitCount + '
'; + html += '
'; + } + html += '
'; +} +``` + +实现要点: +- NDCG@5 和 MRR 以百分比形式展示(乘100后保留1位小数) +- 命中分布以简单柱状图展示,排名1-5横向排列 +- 柱状图高度按最大命中次数比例计算 +- 使用 rank_1..rank_5 键名格式解析分布数据 +- 新增 data_warning 展示:回测数据不足时显示警告 +- 转移概率阶数从 analysis.transition_order 获取(而非 backtest) +
+ + +- grep 匹配: `backtest.ndcg_5` 在 history.js renderPredict 方法中存在 +- grep 匹配: `backtest.mrr` 在 history.js renderPredict 方法中存在 +- grep 匹配: `backtest.hit_distribution` 在 history.js renderPredict 方法中存在 +- grep 匹配: `backtest.data_warning` 在 history.js renderPredict 方法中存在 +- grep 匹配: `rank_1|rank_2|rank_3|rank_4|rank_5` 在命中分布解析中存在 +- grep 匹配: `analysis.transition_order` 在 history.js renderPredict 方法中存在 +- 命中分布柱状图使用 div 元素实现 + + +### Task 3: 在预测号码卡片中显示置信度(含得分集中度展示) + + +- D:\code\php\amlhc\public\assets\js\backend\history.js (line 1828-1866, 预测号码列表渲染) + + + +在预测号码列表渲染区域(约 line 1828-1866),找到号码卡片渲染代码: + +在现有得分显示后添加置信度显示。找到以下代码段: + +```javascript +html += '
得分:' + p.score + '
'; +``` + +替换为: + +```javascript +html += '
得分:' + p.score + '
'; + +// 显示置信度(V3版本) +if (version === 'v3' && confidence && confidence.confidence_scores) { + var csForNum = confidence.confidence_scores.find(function(c) { return c.num === p.num; }); + if (csForNum) { + // 阈值定义:>=70%高(绿)、50-70%中(橙)、<50%低(红) + var confLevel = csForNum.confidence >= 70 ? '高' : (csForNum.confidence >= 50 ? '中' : '低'); + var confColor = csForNum.confidence >= 70 ? '#4caf50' : (csForNum.confidence >= 50 ? '#ff9800' : '#f44336'); + html += '
置信度:' + confLevel + ' (' + csForNum.confidence + '%)
'; + } +} +``` + +实现要点: +- 在号码卡片中显示置信度等级(高/中/低)和具体百分比 +- 使用与整体置信度展示相同的颜色映射阈值 +- 只在 V3 版本中显示 +- 置信度字段使用 score_concentration(得分集中度)维度 +
+ + +- grep 匹配: `csForNum` 变量在 history.js 中存在 +- grep 匹配: `置信度:` 在号码卡片渲染代码中存在 +- 置信度显示在得分下方 +- grep 匹配: `csForNum.confidence` 在号码卡片渲染中存在 + + +## Verification + +1. 打开 history 页面,点击"智能预测"按钮 +2. 使用 V3 版本执行预测,验证: + - 置信度评估区域是否显示 + - 数据不足时是否显示警告提示 + - 回测结果中是否显示 NDCG@5、MRR、命中分布柱状图 + - 预测号码卡片中是否显示置信度等级和百分比 + +## Success Criteria + +1. `renderPredict` 方法已更新,新增置信度展示区域 +2. 回测结果展示区域已扩展,包含 NDCG@5、MRR、命中分布、数据警告 +3. 预测号码卡片显示置信度等级和百分比 +4. 命中分布使用 rank_1..rank_5 键名格式解析 +5. 所有新增展示样式与原有 UI 风格一致 +6. 数据警告以红色背景突出显示 + +## Output + +完成后创建 `.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-03-SUMMARY.md` \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-04-PLAN.md b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-04-PLAN.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..08a855f --- /dev/null +++ b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-04-PLAN.md @@ -0,0 +1,346 @@ +--- +phase: 11-predictv3 +plan: 04 +type: execute +wave: 1 +depends_on: [] +files_modified: + - application/admin/model/History.php + - application/admin/controller/History.php +autonomous: true +requirements: + - PRED-04 +must_haves: + truths: + - "用户可以通过接口获取最优权重配置" + - "系统返回基于历史回测的权重优化结果" + - "优化结果包含各权重配置的命中率、NDCG评估" + - "网格搜索有超时保护机制" + artifacts: + - path: "application/admin/model/History.php" + provides: "权重网格搜索优化方法" + contains: "_optimizeWeightsGridSearch" + - path: "application/admin/controller/History.php" + provides: "权重优化接口入口" + contains: "optimizeWeights" + key_links: + - from: "optimizeWeights controller" + to: "_optimizeWeightsGridSearch model" + via: "method call" +--- + +# Phase 11 - Plan 04: 权重网格搜索优化 + +## Objective + +实现权重网格搜索优化功能,通过预定义权重组合批量回测,找出最优权重配置,提升算法预测准确性。 + +**Purpose:** 当前权重为手动配置,缺乏数据驱动优化。网格搜索是一种成熟的参数优化方法,能基于历史回测数据找到更优权重组合。 + +**Output:** `History.php` 新增 `_optimizeWeightsGridSearch` 方法,`History.php` controller 新增 `optimizeWeights` 接口入口。 + +## Tasks + +### Task 1: 实现权重网格搜索方法(含5种具体配置和超时保护) + + +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (line 2094-2113, 默认权重配置) +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (line 3495-3556, _runBacktestV3 方法) + + + +在 `History.php` 类末尾新增权重网格搜索优化方法: + +```php +/** + * 权重网格搜索优化 + * + * 优化目标定义: + * - 综合评估得分 = hit_rate * 0.6 + ndcg_5 * 100 * 0.4 + * - 命中率权重60%,NDCG权重40% + * - 返回综合得分最高的权重配置 + * + * 5种预定义权重配置: + * - 配置1: 遗漏优先型 - omit_regression权重最高(0.25) + * - 配置2: 转移概率优先型 - transition_prob权重最高(0.25) + * - 配置3: 走势方向优先型 - trend_direction权重最高(0.25) + * - 配置4: 平衡型 - 各维度权重较均衡 + * - 配置5: 组合特征优先型 - combination权重最高(0.20) + * + * @param int $periods 统计期数,范围50-500 + * @param int $backtestCount 回测期数,范围10-100 + * @param int $timeoutSeconds 超时限制秒数,默认60秒 + * @return array {best_weights: [], best_hit_rate: float, best_ndcg: float, all_results: [], timed_out: bool} + */ +private function _optimizeWeightsGridSearch($periods = 200, $backtestCount = 50, $timeoutSeconds = 60) +{ + // 超时保护:记录开始时间 + $startTime = microtime(true); + $timedOut = false; + + // 5种预定义权重配置(具体权重值明确) + $weightConfigs = [ + // 配置1: 遗漏优先型 - 遗漏回归权重最高 + [ + 'omit_regression' => 0.25, // 遗漏回归权重25% + 'freq_regression' => 0.12, // 频率回归权重12% + 'transition_prob' => 0.15, // 转移概率权重15% + 'trend_direction' => 0.12, // 走势方向权重12% + 'oddeven_balance' => 0.08, // 单双平衡权重8% + 'bigsmall_balance' => 0.08, // 大小平衡权重8% + 'zone_balance' => 0.05, // 区域平衡权重5% + 'color_balance' => 0.05, // 波色平衡权重5% + 'combination' => 0.10 // 组合特征权重10% + ], + // 配置2: 转移概率优先型 - 转移概率权重最高 + [ + 'omit_regression' => 0.15, + 'freq_regression' => 0.10, + 'transition_prob' => 0.25, // 转移概率权重25%(最高) + 'trend_direction' => 0.12, + 'oddeven_balance' => 0.08, + 'bigsmall_balance' => 0.08, + 'zone_balance' => 0.04, + 'color_balance' => 0.04, + 'combination' => 0.14 + ], + // 配置3: 走势方向优先型 - 走势方向权重最高 + [ + 'omit_regression' => 0.12, + 'freq_regression' => 0.10, + 'transition_prob' => 0.15, + 'trend_direction' => 0.25, // 走势方向权重25%(最高) + 'oddeven_balance' => 0.08, + 'bigsmall_balance' => 0.08, + 'zone_balance' => 0.04, + 'color_balance' => 0.04, + 'combination' => 0.12 + ], + // 配置4: 平衡型(默认配置)- 各维度权重较均衡 + [ + 'omit_regression' => 0.18, + 'freq_regression' => 0.12, + 'transition_prob' => 0.18, + 'trend_direction' => 0.14, + 'oddeven_balance' => 0.08, + 'bigsmall_balance' => 0.08, + 'zone_balance' => 0.04, + 'color_balance' => 0.04, + 'combination' => 0.10 + ], + // 配置5: 组合特征优先型 - 组合特征权重最高 + [ + 'omit_regression' => 0.15, + 'freq_regression' => 0.10, + 'transition_prob' => 0.15, + 'trend_direction' => 0.12, + 'oddeven_balance' => 0.06, + 'bigsmall_balance' => 0.06, + 'zone_balance' => 0.03, + 'color_balance' => 0.03, + 'combination' => 0.20 // 组合特征权重20%(最高) + ] + ]; + + $bestWeights = []; + $bestHitRate = 0; + $bestNdcg = 0; + $bestCombinedScore = 0; + $allResults = []; + + // 执行每种配置的回测(添加超时检查) + foreach ($weightConfigs as $configIdx => $weights) { + // 超时检查:超过限制时间则停止 + $elapsedTime = microtime(true) - $startTime; + if ($elapsedTime > $timeoutSeconds) { + $timedOut = true; + break; + } + + // 执行回测 + $backtest = $this->_runBacktestV3($periods, $weights, $backtestCount); + + $hitRate = $backtest['hit_rate'] ?? 0; + $ndcg = $backtest['ndcg_5'] ?? 0; + $avgRank = $backtest['avg_rank'] ?? 0; + $mrr = $backtest['mrr'] ?? 0; + + // 综合评估得分:命中率60% + NDCG40% + $combinedScore = $hitRate * 0.6 + $ndcg * 100 * 0.4; + + $result = [ + 'config_name' => $configIdx + 1, + 'config_type' => ['遗漏优先型', '转移概率优先型', '走势方向优先型', '平衡型', '组合特征优先型'][$configIdx], + 'weights' => $weights, + 'hit_rate' => $hitRate, + 'avg_rank' => $avgRank, + 'ndcg_5' => $ndcg, + 'mrr' => $mrr, + 'combined_score' => round($combinedScore, 2), + 'total_hits' => $backtest['total_hits'] ?? 0 + ]; + + $allResults[] = $result; + + // 更新最优配置 + if ($combinedScore > $bestCombinedScore) { + $bestCombinedScore = $combinedScore; + $bestHitRate = $hitRate; + $bestNdcg = $ndcg; + $bestWeights = $weights; + } + } + + // 按综合得分降序排序结果 + usort($allResults, function($a, $b) { + return $b['combined_score'] - $a['combined_score']; + }); + + return [ + 'best_weights' => $bestWeights, + 'best_hit_rate' => $bestHitRate, + 'best_ndcg' => $bestNdcg, + 'best_combined_score' => round($bestCombinedScore, 2), + 'all_results' => $allResults, + 'periods' => $periods, + 'backtest_count' => $backtestCount, + 'timeout_seconds' => $timeoutSeconds, + 'timed_out' => $timedOut, + 'elapsed_time' => round(microtime(true) - $startTime, 2) + ]; +} +``` + +实现要点: +- **5种具体权重配置**:每种配置的权重值在代码中明确列出 +- **优化目标明确**:综合得分 = hit_rate*0.6 + ndcg_5*100*0.4 +- **超时保护**:添加 $timeoutSeconds 参数,默认60秒,超时后停止剩余配置测试 +- **配置类型命名**:遗漏优先型、转移概率优先型、走势方向优先型、平衡型、组合特征优先型 +- 返回 timed_out 标志和 elapsed_time 供前端判断 + + + +- grep 正则匹配: `_optimizeWeightsGridSearch\s*\(` 在 History.php 中存在 +- grep 匹配: `$weightConfigs` 数组包含5个配置项 +- grep 匹配: `$timeoutSeconds` 参数在方法签名中存在 +- grep 匹配: `$timedOut` 变量在方法中存在 +- grep 匹配: `combined_score` 在返回结果中存在 +- grep 匹配: `config_type` 在结果中存在 +- 方法调用 `_runBacktestV3` 进行回测 +- 方法包含函数级注释说明优化目标和配置类型 + + +### Task 2: 新增权重优化接口入口(含参数验证和超时警告) + + +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\controller\History.php (line 25, noNeedRight 数组) +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\controller\History.php (line 460-489, predictV3 方法) + + + +在 `History.php` controller 中: + +1. 将 `optimizeWeights` 添加到 `noNeedRight` 数组(约 line 25): + +找到: +```php +protected $noNeedRight = ['missingNum', 'trendData', ..., 'predictV3']; +``` + +在 `predictV3` 后添加 `'optimizeWeights'`: + +```php +protected $noNeedRight = ['missingNum', 'trendData', ..., 'predictV3', 'optimizeWeights']; +``` + +2. 在 `predictV3` 方法后(约 line 489 之后)新增 `optimizeWeights` 方法: + +```php +/** + * 权重网格搜索优化接口 + * 执行多权重配置回测,返回最优权重组合 + * + * 参数说明: + * - periods: 统计期数,范围50-500,默认200 + * - backtest: 回测期数,范围10-100,默认30 + * - timeout: 超时秒数,范围10-120,默认60 + * + * 返回说明: + * - best_weights: 最优权重配置 + * - best_hit_rate: 最优配置命中率 + * - all_results: 所有配置测试结果 + * - timed_out: 是否超时中断 + */ +public function optimizeWeights() +{ + if ($this->request->isAjax()) { + // 参数验证 + $periods = $this->request->get('periods', 200, 'intval'); + if ($periods < 50 || $periods > 500) { + $this->error('期数范围必须在 50-500 之间'); + } + + $backtestCount = $this->request->get('backtest', 30, 'intval'); + if ($backtestCount < 10 || $backtestCount > 100) { + $backtestCount = 30; // 使用默认值而非报错 + } + + $timeoutSeconds = $this->request->get('timeout', 60, 'intval'); + if ($timeoutSeconds < 10 || $timeoutSeconds > 120) { + $timeoutSeconds = 60; // 使用默认值 + } + + // 执行优化 + $result = $this->model->_optimizeWeightsGridSearch($periods, $backtestCount, $timeoutSeconds); + + // 超时警告提示 + $message = '优化完成'; + if ($result['timed_out']) { + $message = '优化超时中断,已完成' . count($result['all_results']) . '种配置测试'; + } + + $this->success($message, null, $result); + } +} +``` + +实现要点: +- 接口参数:periods(统计期数)、backtest(回测期数)、timeout(超时秒数) +- 参数范围验证,超出范围时使用默认值或报错 +- 返回最优权重配置及所有测试结果 +- 超时时返回警告消息和已完成的测试数量 +- 需添加到 noNeedRight 允许无权限访问 + + + +- grep 匹配: `optimizeWeights` 在 noNeedRight 数组中存在 +- grep 正则匹配: `public function optimizeWeights\s*\(` 在 controller 中存在 +- grep 匹配: `$timeoutSeconds` 在方法中存在 +- grep 匹配: `$result['timed_out']` 在方法中存在 +- 方法调用 `$this->model->_optimizeWeightsGridSearch` +- 方法包含函数级注释 + + +## Verification + +执行权重优化接口验证返回结果: + +```bash +curl -s "http://127.0.0.1:8000/admin/history/optimizeWeights?periods=200&backtest=20&timeout=60" | grep -E "best_weights|best_hit_rate|best_ndcg|all_results|timed_out|config_type" +``` + +预期结果:返回 JSON 中包含 best_weights、best_hit_rate、best_ndcg、all_results、timed_out、config_type 字段。 + +## Success Criteria + +1. `_optimizeWeightsGridSearch` 方法已实现,包含 5 种预定义权重配置(权重值明确) +2. 优化目标明确:综合得分 = hit_rate*0.6 + ndcg_5*100*0.4 +3. 超时保护机制已添加,默认60秒 +4. `optimizeWeights` controller 接口已实现,含参数验证 +5. 接口能正常返回最优权重配置及测试结果 +6. 超时时返回警告消息 +7. 所有新增方法包含函数级注释 + +## Output + +完成后创建 `.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-04-SUMMARY.md` \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-05-PLAN.md b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-05-PLAN.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..479ccd4 --- /dev/null +++ b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-05-PLAN.md @@ -0,0 +1,455 @@ +--- +phase: 11-predictv3 +plan: 05 +type: execute +wave: 1 +depends_on: [] +files_modified: + - application/admin/model/History.php +autonomous: true +requirements: + - PRED-03 +must_haves: + truths: + - "转移概率计算考虑前两期状态联合决定" + - "系统在数据充足时使用二阶马尔可夫,数据不足时回退一阶" + - "预测结果中显示使用的转移概率阶数" + - "二阶马尔可夫有状态对观察次数检查,不足时回退一阶" + artifacts: + - path: "application/admin/model/History.php" + provides: "二阶马尔可夫转移矩阵构建方法" + contains: "_getTransitionMatrix2ndOrder|_calcTransitionScore2ndOrder" + key_links: + - from: "getPredictionV3" + to: "_getTransitionMatrix2ndOrder" + via: "conditional call based on data availability and state pair count" +--- + +# Phase 11 - Plan 05: 二阶马尔可夫转移概率增强 + +## Objective + +改进现有一阶马尔可夫链转移概率计算,新增二阶马尔可夫链实现。考虑前两期状态联合决定当前转移概率,提升转移概率预测准确性。 + +**Purpose:** 现有 `_getTransitionMatrix` 仅考虑上一期状态,预测信息有限。二阶马尔可夫链利用更长历史序列,理论上预测更精准。 + +**Important:** 本计划是独立功能增强,不依赖其他计划。可独立执行。 + +**Output:** `History.php` 新增 `_getTransitionMatrix2ndOrder` 和 `_calcTransitionScore2ndOrder` 方法,`getPredictionV3` 中根据数据量和状态对观察次数选择使用一阶或二阶转移概率。 + +## Tasks + +### Task 1: 实现二阶马尔可夫转移矩阵构建方法(含状态对观察次数检查) + + +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (line 2468-2493, _getTransitionMatrix 方法) +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (line 2452-2460, _getHeadIdx 方法) + + + +在 `History.php` 类末尾新增二阶马尔可夫转移矩阵构建方法: + +```php +/** + * 构建二阶马尔可夫转移矩阵 + * 考虑前两期状态联合决定当前转移概率 + * + * 状态空间说明: + * - 一阶马尔可夫: N个状态 (zone:5, tail:10, head:5) + * - 二阶马尔可夫: N^2个状态对 (zone:25, tail:100, head:25) + * - 状态键格式: "prev1-prev2",如 "2-3" 表示前一期区域2、前两期区域3 + * + * 数据量阈值说明: + * - 建议历史数据 >= 200期以获得稳定的二阶概率估计 + * - 状态对观察次数 >= 5 才使用该状态对的二阶概率 + * - 观察次数不足时返回 state_pair_insufficient 标志,供调用者回退一阶 + * + * @param array $history 历史数据(降序,最新在前) + * @param string $type 类型:zone/tail/head + * @param int $minStatePairCount 状态对最小观察次数,默认5 + * @return array {matrix: [], prob_matrix: [], state_totals: [], num_categories: int, sufficient_pairs: int, total_pairs: int, min_threshold: int} + */ +private function _getTransitionMatrix2ndOrder($history, $type, $minStatePairCount = 5) +{ + // 升序排列(从旧到新) + $historyAsc = array_reverse($history); + + // 确定类别数量和索引函数 + switch ($type) { + case 'zone': + $numCategories = 5; + $getIdx = function ($num) { + if ($num <= 10) return 0; + if ($num <= 20) return 1; + if ($num <= 30) return 2; + if ($num <= 40) return 3; + return 4; + }; + break; + case 'tail': + $numCategories = 10; + $getIdx = function ($num) { return $num % 10; }; + break; + case 'head': + $numCategories = 5; + $getIdx = function ($num) { + if ($num <= 9) return 0; + if ($num <= 19) return 1; + if ($num <= 29) return 2; + if ($num <= 39) return 3; + return 4; + }; + break; + default: + return [ + 'matrix' => [], + 'prob_matrix' => [], + 'state_totals' => [], + 'num_categories' => 0, + 'sufficient_pairs' => 0, + 'total_pairs' => 0, + 'min_threshold' => $minStatePairCount + ]; + } + + // 状态空间: (prev1, prev2) -> current,共 numCategories^2 个前置状态 + $matrix = []; + $stateTotals = []; + + // 初始化矩阵结构 + for ($i = 0; $i < $numCategories; $i++) { + for ($j = 0; $j < $numCategories; $j++) { + $stateKey = $i . '-' . $j; + $matrix[$stateKey] = array_fill(0, $numCategories, 0); + $stateTotals[$stateKey] = 0; + } + } + + // 统计二阶转移 + for ($i = 0; $i < count($historyAsc) - 2; $i++) { + $prev1 = $getIdx((int)$historyAsc[$i]['num7']); + $prev2 = $getIdx((int)$historyAsc[$i + 1]['num7']); + $current = $getIdx((int)$historyAsc[$i + 2]['num7']); + + if ($prev1 < 0 || $prev2 < 0 || $current < 0) continue; + + $stateKey = $prev1 . '-' . $prev2; + $matrix[$stateKey][$current]++; + $stateTotals[$stateKey]++; + } + + // 统计充分观察的状态对数量(观察次数 >= minStatePairCount) + $sufficientPairs = 0; + $totalPairs = $numCategories * $numCategories; + foreach ($stateTotals as $stateKey => $count) { + if ($count >= $minStatePairCount) { + $sufficientPairs++; + } + } + + // 拉普拉斯平滑处理 + $probMatrix = []; + foreach ($matrix as $stateKey => $counts) { + $smoothTotal = $stateTotals[$stateKey] + $numCategories; + $probMatrix[$stateKey] = []; + for ($j = 0; $j < $numCategories; $j++) { + $probMatrix[$stateKey][$j] = ($counts[$j] + 1) / $smoothTotal; + } + } + + return [ + 'matrix' => $matrix, + 'prob_matrix' => $probMatrix, + 'state_totals' => $stateTotals, + 'num_categories' => $numCategories, + 'sufficient_pairs' => $sufficientPairs, + 'total_pairs' => $totalPairs, + 'min_threshold' => $minStatePairCount + ]; +} +``` + +实现要点: +- 状态空间从 N 扩展到 N^2(zone: 25状态,tail: 100状态,head: 25状态) +- 使用拉普拉斯平滑处理避免零概率问题 +- 状态键格式为 "prev1-prev2" +- **新增状态对观察次数检查**:统计 sufficient_pairs(观察>=5次的状态对数量) +- 返回 sufficient_pairs、total_pairs、min_threshold 供调用者判断是否足够稳定 + + + +- grep 正则匹配: `_getTransitionMatrix2ndOrder\s*\(` 在 History.php 中存在 +- grep 匹配: `$minStatePairCount` 参数在方法签名中存在 +- grep 匹配: `sufficient_pairs` 在返回结构中存在 +- grep 匹配: `total_pairs` 在返回结构中存在 +- 方法包含 stateKey 变量(格式为 prev1-prev2) +- 方法包含函数级注释,说明状态空间和数据量阈值 + + +### Task 2: 实现二阶转移概率得分计算方法 + + +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (新增的 _getTransitionMatrix2ndOrder 方法) +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (查找 _calcTransitionScore 方法位置) + + + +使用 Grep 找到 `_calcTransitionScore` 方法位置后,在其附近新增二阶转移概率得分计算方法: + +```bash +grep -n "_calcTransitionScore" application/admin/model/History.php +``` + +新增 `_calcTransitionScore2ndOrder` 方法: + +```php +/** + * 计算二阶转移概率得分 + * + * 计算方法: + * - 综合区域、尾号、首号三个维度的二阶转移概率 + * - 各维度权重: 区域40%、尾号35%、首号25% + * - 得分范围: 0-100 + * + * @param int $num 当前号码 + * @param int $prev1Zone 前一期区域索引 + * @param int $prev2Zone 前两期区域索引 + * @param int $prev1Tail 前一期尾号索引 + * @param int $prev2Tail 前两期尾号索引 + * @param int $prev1Head 前一期首号索引 + * @param int $prev2Head 前两期首号索引 + * @param array $zoneTrans2nd 二阶区域转移矩阵 + * @param array $tailTrans2nd 二阶尾号转移矩阵 + * @param array $headTrans2nd 二阶首号转移矩阵 + * @param array $zoneMap 号码区域映射 + * @param array $tailMap 号码尾号映射 + * @param array $headMap 号码首号映射 + * @return float 综合转移得分 (0-100) + */ +private function _calcTransitionScore2ndOrder( + $num, + $prev1Zone, $prev2Zone, + $prev1Tail, $prev2Tail, + $prev1Head, $prev2Head, + $zoneTrans2nd, $tailTrans2nd, $headTrans2nd, + $zoneMap, $tailMap, $headMap +) +{ + $zone = $zoneMap[$num]; + $tail = $tailMap[$num]; + $head = $headMap[$num]; + + $score = 0; + + // 区域二阶转移得分(权重40%) + $zoneStateKey = $prev1Zone . '-' . $prev2Zone; + if (isset($zoneTrans2nd['prob_matrix'][$zoneStateKey][$zone])) { + $prob = $zoneTrans2nd['prob_matrix'][$zoneStateKey][$zone]; + $score += $prob * 40; + } + + // 尾号二阶转移得分(权重35%) + $tailStateKey = $prev1Tail . '-' . $prev2Tail; + if (isset($tailTrans2nd['prob_matrix'][$tailStateKey][$tail])) { + $prob = $tailTrans2nd['prob_matrix'][$tailStateKey][$tail]; + $score += $prob * 35; + } + + // 首号二阶转移得分(权重25%) + $headStateKey = $prev1Head . '-' . $prev2Head; + if (isset($headTrans2nd['prob_matrix'][$headStateKey][$head])) { + $prob = $headTrans2nd['prob_matrix'][$headStateKey][$head]; + $score += $prob * 25; + } + + return round($score, 2); +} +``` + +实现要点: +- 综合区域、尾号、首号三个维度 +- 各维度权重:区域40%、尾号35%、首号25% +- 使用 prob_matrix 中对应状态键的概率值 + + + +- grep 正则匹配: `_calcTransitionScore2ndOrder\s*\(` 在 History.php 中存在 +- 方法参数包含 prev1Zone、prev2Zone 等二阶状态参数 +- 方法包含 zoneStateKey、tailStateKey、headStateKey 变量 +- 方法包含函数级注释说明权重分配 + + +### Task 3: 在 getPredictionV3 中集成二阶马尔可夫(含200期阈值和状态对检查) + + +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (line 2230-2239, 转移概率分析部分) +- D:\code\php\amlhc\application\admin\model\History.php (line 2159-2161, 历史数据量检查) + + + +在 `getPredictionV3` 方法中修改转移概率分析部分(约 line 2230-2239): + +1. 找到以下代码段: +```php +// ====== 3. 转移概率分析(新增)====== +// 获取转移概率矩阵数据 +$zoneTransition = $this->_getTransitionMatrix($allHistory, 'zone'); +$tailTransition = $this->_getTransitionMatrix($allHistory, 'tail'); +$headTransition = $this->_getTransitionMatrix($allHistory, 'head'); + +// 上期号码的各类属性 +$lastZone = $this->_getZoneIdx($lastSpecial); +$lastTail = $lastSpecial % 10; +$lastHead = $this->_getHeadIdx($lastSpecial); +``` + +替换为: +```php +// ====== 3. 转移概率分析 ====== +// 根据历史数据量决定使用一阶或二阶马尔可夫 +// 阈值条件:总期数 >= 200 且 状态对观察次数充足(>=5次的比例>=30%) +$minPeriodsThreshold = 200; // 二阶马尔可夫最小历史期数阈值(从100提升到200) +$minStatePairCount = 5; // 状态对最小观察次数 +$use2ndOrder = false; +$secondOrderAvailable = false; + +// 获取一阶转移概率矩阵(始终计算,作为fallback) +$zoneTransition = $this->_getTransitionMatrix($allHistory, 'zone'); +$tailTransition = $this->_getTransitionMatrix($allHistory, 'tail'); +$headTransition = $this->_getTransitionMatrix($allHistory, 'head'); + +// 获取二阶转移概率矩阵(数据充足时) +$zoneTransition2nd = null; +$tailTransition2nd = null; +$headTransition2nd = null; +$prev2Zone = 0; +$prev2Tail = 0; +$prev2Head = 0; + +if (count($allHistory) >= $minPeriodsThreshold && count($allHistory) >= 2) { + // 获取前两期号码属性 + $prev2Special = (int)$allHistory[1]['num7']; + $prev2Zone = $this->_getZoneIdx($prev2Special); + $prev2Tail = $prev2Special % 10; + $prev2Head = $this->_getHeadIdx($prev2Special); + + // 构建二阶转移矩阵 + $zoneTransition2nd = $this->_getTransitionMatrix2ndOrder($allHistory, 'zone', $minStatePairCount); + $tailTransition2nd = $this->_getTransitionMatrix2ndOrder($allHistory, 'tail', $minStatePairCount); + $headTransition2nd = $this->_getTransitionMatrix2ndOrder($allHistory, 'head', $minStatePairCount); + + // 检查状态对观察次数是否充足(至少30%的状态对有足够观察) + // tail类型状态空间最大(100),以tail为基准判断 + if ($tailTransition2nd['total_pairs'] > 0) { + $sufficientRatio = $tailTransition2nd['sufficient_pairs'] / $tailTransition2nd['total_pairs']; + $secondOrderAvailable = $sufficientRatio >= 0.3; // 至少30%状态对观察>=5次 + } + + $use2ndOrder = $secondOrderAvailable; +} + +// 上期号码的各类属性 +$lastZone = $this->_getZoneIdx($lastSpecial); +$lastTail = $lastSpecial % 10; +$lastHead = $this->_getHeadIdx($lastSpecial); +``` + +2. 在 analysis 数组中添加转移阶数信息(约 line 2297-2317): + +找到: +```php +$analysis = [ + 'last_special' => $lastSpecial, + 'last_expect' => $lastExpect, + 'weights' => $weights, + ... +]; +``` + +在 `trend_direction` 后添加: +```php +$analysis = [ + ... + 'trend_direction' => $trendDirection, + 'transition_order' => $use2ndOrder ? 2 : 1, // 新增:转移概率阶数 + 'transition_available' => $secondOrderAvailable, // 二阶是否可用 + 'history_count' => count($allHistory), // 历史期数 + 'min_periods_threshold' => $minPeriodsThreshold, // 阈值 + 'last_zone' => $zoneLabels[$lastZone] ?? '', + ... +]; +``` + +3. 在得分计算循环中(约 line 2342-2349)修改转移概率得分计算: + +找到: +```php +// === 转移概率得分 === +$transScore = $this->_calcTransitionScore( + $num, $lastZone, $lastTail, $lastHead, + $zoneTransition, $tailTransition, $headTransition, + $zoneMap, $tailMap, $headMap +); +``` + +替换为: +```php +// === 转移概率得分(根据阶数选择计算方法)=== +if ($use2ndOrder && $zoneTransition2nd && $tailTransition2nd && $headTransition2nd) { + $transScore = $this->_calcTransitionScore2ndOrder( + $num, $lastZone, $prev2Zone, $lastTail, $prev2Tail, $lastHead, $prev2Head, + $zoneTransition2nd, $tailTransition2nd, $headTransition2nd, + $zoneMap, $tailMap, $headMap + ); + $detail['trans_order'] = 2; +} else { + $transScore = $this->_calcTransitionScore( + $num, $lastZone, $lastTail, $lastHead, + $zoneTransition, $tailTransition, $headTransition, + $zoneMap, $tailMap, $headMap + ); + $detail['trans_order'] = 1; +} +``` + + + +- grep 匹配: `minPeriodsThreshold` 变量在 getPredictionV3 中存在(值为200) +- grep 匹配: `minStatePairCount` 变量在 getPredictionV3 中存在(值为5) +- grep 匹配: `$secondOrderAvailable` 变量在 getPredictionV3 中存在 +- grep 匹配: `sufficientRatio` 在 getPredictionV3 中存在(状态对观察比例) +- grep 匹配: `_getTransitionMatrix2ndOrder` 在 getPredictionV3 中被调用 +- grep 匹配: `transition_order` 在 analysis 数组中存在 +- grep 匹配: `transition_available` 在 analysis 数组中存在 +- grep 匹配: `_calcTransitionScore2ndOrder` 在得分计算中被调用 +- 数据量阈值设置为 200 期(而非原100期) +- 状态对观察次数检查 >= 5,比例 >= 30% + + +## Verification + +执行预测接口验证二阶马尔可夫使用情况: + +```bash +curl -s "http://127.0.0.1:8000/admin/history/predictV3?periods=300&backtest=10" | grep -E "transition_order|transition_available|history_count" +``` + +预期结果: +- periods >= 200 且状态对观察充足时,返回 transition_order: 2 +- periods < 200 或状态对观察不足时,返回 transition_order: 1 +- transition_available 显示二阶是否可用 + +## Success Criteria + +1. `_getTransitionMatrix2ndOrder` 方法已实现,包含二阶状态空间构建 +2. `_calcTransitionScore2ndOrder` 方法已实现 +3. `getPredictionV3` 根据数据量和状态对观察次数自动选择一阶或二阶马尔可夫 +4. 数据量阈值提升到 200 期(而非原100期) +5. 状态对观察次数检查 >= 5,比例 >= 30% 才使用二阶 +6. analysis 返回中包含 transition_order、transition_available 字段 +7. 所有新增方法包含函数级注释 +8. depends_on 已修正为空数组(独立功能) + +## Output + +完成后创建 `.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-05-SUMMARY.md` \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-RESEARCH.md b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-RESEARCH.md index 8bd1139..7399302 100644 --- a/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-RESEARCH.md +++ b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-RESEARCH.md @@ -844,25 +844,29 @@ foreach ($weights as $key => $value) { --- -## Open Questions +## Open Questions (RESOLVED) 1. **历史数据量是否足够支撑高级优化?** - 当前默认200期统计,二阶马尔可夫和关联规则挖掘建议500期+ - 需检查数据库中实际可用的历史期数 - 推荐: 查询 `SELECT COUNT(*) FROM fa_history` 确认数据量 + - **Resolution:** 11-05 Task 3 设置100期阈值,数据不足时回退一阶马尔可夫,已在plan中处理 2. **权重优化结果如何持久化?** - 选项A: 存储到 `application/extra/predict.php` 配置文件 - 选项B: 存储到数据库配置表 - 选项C: 每次预测时动态计算(性能成本高) + - **Resolution:** 11-04 采用选项C(动态计算)+ 返回结果给前端展示,不持久化。设计决策:避免过拟合特定时间段,每次获取最新优化结果 3. **置信度阈值如何定义?** - 当前假设: >=70%为高,50-70%为中,<50%为低 - 需根据实际回测数据调整阈值 + - **Resolution:** 11-02 Task 1 明确阈值定义:>=70%高(绿色)、50-70%中(橙色)、<50%低(红色),前端11-03使用相同映射 4. **前端如何展示新增的回测指标(NDCG、MRR)?** - 需设计用户友好的展示方式 - 可考虑简化为"预测质量评分"单一指标 + - **Resolution:** 11-03 Task 2 实现百分比显示 + 柱状图:NDCG@5/MRR以百分比展示,命中分布以柱状图可视化 --- diff --git a/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-REVIEWS.md b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-REVIEWS.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..248bebf --- /dev/null +++ b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-REVIEWS.md @@ -0,0 +1,158 @@ +--- +phase: 11 +reviewers: [codex, opencode] +reviewed_at: 2026-05-01T12:30:00+08:00 +plans_reviewed: [11-01-PLAN.md, 11-02-PLAN.md, 11-03-PLAN.md, 11-04-PLAN.md, 11-05-PLAN.md] +--- + +# Cross-AI Plan Review — Phase 11: predictV3算法优化 + +## Codex Review + +### Summary + +计划技术上是合理的,但有几个需要注意的地方:依赖关系修复、数据验证、性能保护和边缘情况处理。整体架构遵循现有模式良好,NDCG@5 和 MRR 作为排名评估指标是适当的。 + +### Strengths + +- 计划结构清晰,任务分解合理 +- NDCG@5、MRR、命中分布都是业界标准的排名质量评估指标 +- 扩展字段明确(ndcg_5、mrr、hit_distribution、precision_5) +- 整体架构遵循现有代码模式 + +### Concerns + +| Severity | Concern | +|----------|---------| +| HIGH | **依赖关系错误**: Plan 05 (二阶马尔可夫) 不应依赖 Plans 01 和 03 — 它是独立的增强功能 | +| HIGH | **数据验证缺失**: 需要最小样本量检查 — 置信度计算建议 50+ 期,二阶马尔可夫建议 150+ 期 | +| MEDIUM | **性能保护**: 网格搜索需要超时保护和最优权重缓存机制 | +| MEDIUM | **边缘情况**: NDCG 计算需要空预测保护;命中分布需要定义明确的统计桶 | + +### Suggestions + +- 修复 Plan 05 的依赖关系,使其独立执行 +- 添加数据量阈值验证,不足时返回提示或回退策略 +- 为网格搜索添加执行超时限制(如 60 秒) +- 在 NDCG/MRR 计算前检查 `$details` 是否为空 + +### Risk Assessment + +**MEDIUM** — 依赖关系和边缘情况需要修复,否则执行可能失败。 + +--- + +## OpenCode Review + +### Summary + +Phase 11 计划在功能扩展方向上合理,在现有 V3 预测算法(9维度 + 动态权重)基础上增加置信度评估、回测指标扩展、权重优化和二阶马尔可夫链增强。计划整体结构清晰,依赖关系明确,但存在若干实现细节缺失和潜在风险需要补充。 + +### Strengths + +- Plan 01 任务分解合理,指标选择专业 +- Plan 02 与回测指标扩展解耦,可独立实现 +- Plan 03 依赖明确,在现有弹窗架构内实现 +- Plan 04 网格搜索是系统化的超参数优化方法 +- Plan 05 二阶马尔可夫是合理的算法增强方向 + +### Concerns + +| Severity | Concern | +|----------|---------| +| HIGH | **Plan 01: NDCG 计算公式不明确** — 需要确认基于什么"理想排名"计算,relevance score 定义模糊 | +| HIGH | **Plan 01: hit_distribution 定义模糊** — 具体指什么分布?按命中排名?按命中/未命中按期数分布? | +| HIGH | **Plan 02: "历史排名命中率"数据来源不明** — 现有 `_runBacktestV3` 不保存历史命中率数据,需要明确是实时计算还是缓存 | +| HIGH | **Plan 02: "多维度一致性"定义不明** — 具体指哪些维度之间的一致性?如何量化? | +| HIGH | **Plan 04: 5 种权重配置未明确** — 缺少具体配置清单 | +| HIGH | **Plan 04: 优化目标不明确** — 用哪个指标作为优化目标?hit_rate?NDCG?MRR? | +| HIGH | **Plan 05: 状态空间爆炸** — 二阶马尔可夫状态空间大(尾数 10×10=100),100 期历史数据下很多状态对从未出现,概率估计不准确 | +| HIGH | **Plan 05: 100 期阈值缺乏依据** — 二阶马尔可夫需要更长历史,建议至少 200-300 期 | +| MEDIUM | **Plan 01: precision_5 与 hit_rate 关系** — 两者都是 Top-5 命中,是否重复?建议区分或合并 | +| MEDIUM | **Plan 02: 置信度百分比计算公式** — 三个维度如何加权组合?权重比例未明确 | +| MEDIUM | **Plan 02: 数据量要求** — 历史 < 20 期时置信度不准确,缺少 fallback 策略 | +| MEDIUM | **Plan 03: UI 设计细节缺失** — 未提供具体布局建议,置信度展示样式不明确 | +| MEDIUM | **Plan 03: 命中分布图表实现** — 未说明使用 ECharts 还是 CSS,数据量大时需考虑性能 | +| MEDIUM | **Plan 04: 结果持久化** — 每次调用都重新计算?建议增加缓存 | +| MEDIUM | **Plan 04: 计算量** — 5 配置 × 50 期回测 = 250 次预测,响应时间长,建议异步 | +| MEDIUM | **Plan 05: 一阶/二阶切换逻辑** — 判断条件不明确:总期数阈值还是状态对观察次数阈值? | +| MEDIUM | **Plan 05: 与现有一阶权重关系** — 二阶是独立维度还是替换一阶? | +| LOW | **Plan 01: 计算性能** — 每次回测批量计算可能影响性能 | +| LOW | **Plan 02: 返回值结构** — 是否每个号码都提供置信度? | +| LOW | **Plan 03: 前端数据量** — 命中分布是否需要分页/滚动加载? | +| LOW | **Plan 03: 国际化** — 新增 UI 文本是否需要多语言? | +| LOW | **Plan 05: 性能影响** — 二阶计算复杂度高于一阶 | + +### Suggestions + +**Plan 01:** +- 补充 NDCG 公式:DCG = Σ(1/log2(rank+1)),IDCG = Σ(1/log2(i+1)) for i=1..hits +- 明确 hit_distribution 结构:`{rank_1: n, rank_2: n, ..., rank_5: n, miss: n}` +- 添加回测结果缓存机制 + +**Plan 02:** +- 将"多维度一致性"改为"预测得分集中度",基于 Top-5 得分与平均得分差距计算 +- 明确加权公式:`confidence = 0.4*historical + 0.3*score + 0.3*consistency` +- 历史命中率作为 `_runBacktestV3` 副产品,调用一次获取 + +**Plan 03:** +- 补充 UI 设计 mockup 或具体说明 +- 使用现有 ECharts 展示命中分布 +- 置信度用红/黄/绿三色表示高/中/低 + +**Plan 04:** +- 补充 5 种预定义配置的具体权重值 +- 定义优化目标:综合 hit_rate(60%) + avg_rank(40%) +- 使用后台队列异步处理,返回 task_id + +**Plan 05:** +- 重新评估二阶马尔可夫必要性 — 49选1彩票数据稀疏性严重 +- 替代方案:加权 N 阶马尔可夫(70% 二阶 + 30% 一阶) +- 明确判断标准:`count($history) >= 200 && $statePairCount >= 5` + +### Risk Assessment + +**MEDIUM** — 实现复杂度中等,数据稀疏性问题高,多处定义不明确需补充。建议优先实现 Plan 01、02、04,将 Plan 05 作为可选高阶优化或重新评估必要性。 + +--- + +## Consensus Summary + +### Agreed Strengths + +- 计划结构清晰,任务分解合理 ✓ +- NDCG@5、MRR 是适当的排名质量评估指标 ✓ +- 整体架构遵循现有代码模式 ✓ +- 网格搜索是系统化的参数优化方法 ✓ + +### Agreed Concerns (Highest Priority) + +| Priority | Concern | Source | +|----------|---------|--------| +| 1 | **Plan 05 依赖关系错误** — 不应依赖 01、03,是独立功能 | Codex + OpenCode | +| 2 | **数据量验证缺失** — 置信度需 50+,二阶马尔可夫需 150-200+ | Codex + OpenCode | +| 3 | **边缘情况处理** — NDCG/MRR 空预测保护,hit_distribution 定义模糊 | Codex + OpenCode | +| 4 | **Plan 05 状态空间爆炸** — 100 期数据下二阶马尔可夫概率估计不准 | OpenCode | +| 5 | **Plan 02 置信度维度定义不明** — "多维度一致性"如何量化 | OpenCode | +| 6 | **Plan 04 配置未明确** — 5 种权重具体值缺失,优化目标不明 | OpenCode | +| 7 | **性能影响** — 网格搜索需超时/异步,二阶马尔可夫计算量大 | Codex + OpenCode | + +### Divergent Views + +| Issue | Codex | OpenCode | +|-------|-------|----------| +| Plan 05 数据阈值 | 建议 150+ | 建议 200-300+,并要求状态对观察次数 >= 5 | +| precision_5 与 hit_rate | 未提及 | 认为可能重复,建议区分 | + +--- + +## Action Items for Replanning + +1. **Fix Plan 05 depends_on** → 改为 `depends_on: []` +2. **Add data validation** → 所有计算方法添加最小数据量检查和 fallback +3. **Clarify NDCG formula** → 补充完整公式到 Plan 01 Task 1 +4. **Clarify hit_distribution** → 明确结构为 `{rank_1..rank_5: counts}` +5. **Clarify confidence dimensions** → 重命名"多维度一致性"为"得分集中度" +6. **Add weight configs** → Plan 04 补充 5 种具体权重配置值 +7. **Raise 2nd-order threshold** → Plan 05 改为 200 期 + 状态对观察次数检查 +8. **Add performance protection** → 网格搜索添加超时限制,考虑异步 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-VALIDATION.md b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-VALIDATION.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c893440 --- /dev/null +++ b/.planning/phases/11-predictv3/11-VALIDATION.md @@ -0,0 +1,97 @@ +--- +phase: 11 +phase_slug: predictv3 +created: 2026-05-01 +--- + +# Phase 11: predictV3算法优化 - Validation Strategy + +## Overview + +本阶段为算法优化,验证重点在于: +1. 新增指标计算准确性(NDCG、MRR、置信度) +2. 二阶马尔可夫转移矩阵构建正确性 +3. 权重优化结果有效性 +4. 回测命中率提升验证 + +## Test Framework + +| Property | Value | +|----------|-------| +| Framework | PHPUnit (ThinkPHP内置) | +| Config file | 无独立配置,通过 `php think unit` 运行 | +| Quick run command | `php think unit --filter HistoryTest` | +| Full suite command | `php think unit` | + +## Phase Requirements → Test Map + +| Req ID | Behavior | Test Type | Automated Command | File Exists? | +|--------|----------|-----------|-------------------|-------------| +| PRED-01 | 置信度计算准确性 | unit | `php think unit --filter testConfidenceCalculation` | ❌ Wave 0 | +| PRED-02 | NDCG计算准确性 | unit | `php think unit --filter testNDCGCalculation` | ❌ Wave 0 | +| PRED-03 | 二阶马尔可夫转移矩阵构建 | unit | `php think unit --filter testTransitionMatrix2ndOrder` | ❌ Wave 0 | +| PRED-04 | 权重优化收敛性 | unit | `php think unit --filter testWeightOptimization` | ❌ Wave 0 | +| PRED-05 | 回测结果完整性 | unit | `php think unit --filter testBacktestV3Extended` | ❌ Wave 0 | + +## Sampling Rate + +- **Per task commit:** 快速单元测试覆盖核心方法 +- **Per wave merge:** 回测验证使用真实历史数据 +- **Phase gate:** 全量回测(100期)验证整体命中率提升 + +## Wave 0 Gaps + +- [ ] `tests/HistoryTest.php` — 核心预测方法单元测试 +- [ ] `tests/ConfidenceTest.php` — 置信度计算测试 +- [ ] `tests/BacktestMetricsTest.php` — NDCG、MRR等指标计算测试 +- [ ] 共享fixtures: 历史数据模拟生成器 + +## Validation Dimensions + +### Dimension 8: Nyquist Test Coverage + +**Target:** 每个 PLAN.md 至少有一个可验证的测试命令 + +| Plan | Primary Test | Coverage | +|------|--------------|----------| +| 11-01 | testBacktestV3Extended | NDCG/MRR 计算准确性 | +| 11-02 | testConfidenceCalculation | 置信度计算准确性 | +| 11-03 | 手动 UI 验证 | 前端展示正确性 | +| 11-04 | testWeightOptimization | 权重优化收敛性 | +| 11-05 | testTransitionMatrix2ndOrder | 二阶马尔可夫正确性 | + +### Dimension 9: Integration Verification + +**End-to-End Flow:** + +1. 后端 `getPredictionV3()` 返回完整数据结构(predictions + confidence + backtest) +2. 前端 `renderPredict()` 正确渲染所有新增指标 +3. 回测命中率可量化对比(V2 vs V3) + +**Verification Command:** + +```bash +# 验证后端接口返回结构完整性 +curl -s "http://localhost/history/predictV3?periods=100" | jq '.data | keys' +# 期望输出包含: predictions, confidence, backtest, analysis + +# 验证 NDCG/MRR 存在 +curl -s "http://localhost/history/predictV3?periods=100" | jq '.data.backtest | keys' +# 期望输出包含: hit_rate, avg_rank, ndcg_5, mrr, hit_distribution +``` + +## Acceptance Criteria + +### Phase Gate + +- [ ] NDCG@5 计算准确(单元测试通过) +- [ ] MRR 计算准确(单元测试通过) +- [ ] 置信度阈值正确(>=70%高、50-70%中、<50%低) +- [ ] 二阶马尔可夫在数据充足时启用 +- [ ] 前端展示包含所有新增指标 +- [ ] 回测命中率有提升(相比 V2) + +--- + +*Phase: 11-predictv3* +*Validation strategy created: 2026-05-01* \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.planning/quick/20260430-history-predict/PLAN.md b/.planning/quick/20260430-history-predict/PLAN.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d212960 --- /dev/null +++ b/.planning/quick/20260430-history-predict/PLAN.md @@ -0,0 +1,55 @@ +--- +name: history-predict +created: 2026-04-30 +type: quick +--- + +# 预测号码功能规划 + +## 目标 +在 history 页面新增预测号码功能,综合历史记录多维度分析给出号码预测建议。 + +## 分析维度 +现有系统已具备以下转移概率分析: +1. **区域转移** - zoneTransition (1-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-49) +2. **生肖转移** - zodiacTransition (12生肖) +3. **尾号转移** - tailNumberTransition (尾号0-9) +4. **首号转移** - headNumberTransition (首号0-4) +5. **波色转移** - colorWaveTransition (红/蓝/绿) + +## 预测算法 +基于最近N期特码,结合各维度转移概率矩阵: +- 根据上一期特码所在维度(区域、生肖、尾号、首号),查找转移概率最高的目标维度 +- 综合各维度预测结果,计算每个号码的综合得分 +- 得分 = 区域概率权重 + 生肖概率权重 + 尾号概率权重 + 首号概率权重 + 波色概率权重 + +## 实现步骤 + +### 1. 后端 Model 新增方法 +- `getPrediction($periods, $weights)` - 综合预测计算方法 + - 输入:历史期数、各维度权重配置 + - 输出:预测号码列表(按得分排序) + +### 2. 后端 Controller 新增接口 +- `predict()` - AJAX 接口 + - 参数:periods, weights (可选) + - 返回:预测号码列表 + 各维度分析详情 + +### 3. 前端 JS 新增功能 +- 预测弹窗 `showPredictDialog()` +- 权重配置面板 +- 预测结果渲染(号码球 + 得分 + 各维度分析说明) + +### 4. 权重配置 +默认权重: +- 区域转移:0.25 +- 生肖转移:0.20 +- 尾号转移:0.20 +- 首号转移:0.15 +- 波色转移:0.10 +- 冷热系数:0.10 + +## 文件修改清单 +1. `application/admin/model/History.php` - 新增 getPrediction 方法 +2. `application/admin/controller/History.php` - 新增 predict 接口,更新 noNeedRight +3. `public/assets/js/backend/history.js` - 新增预测弹窗和渲染逻辑 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.planning/quick/20260430-history-predict/SUMMARY.md b/.planning/quick/20260430-history-predict/SUMMARY.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..34a7bc1 --- /dev/null +++ b/.planning/quick/20260430-history-predict/SUMMARY.md @@ -0,0 +1,37 @@ +--- +status: complete +created: 2026-04-30 +slug: history-predict +--- + +# 预测号码功能完成 + +## 实现内容 + +### 1. 后端 Model (History.php) +新增 `getPrediction($periods, $weights)` 方法: +- 基于 6 个维度计算综合预测得分 +- 区域转移、生肖转移、尾号转移、首号转移、波色转移、冷热系数 +- 返回 Top 20 预测号码及其详细得分分析 + +### 2. 后端 Controller (History.php) +新增 `predict()` 接口: +- 支持 AJAX 请求 +- 可配置统计期数和权重参数 +- 已加入 `noNeedRight` 白名单 + +### 3. 前端 JS (history.js) +新增预测功能: +- `showPredictDialog()` - 预测弹窗 +- `queryPredict()` - AJAX 查询 +- `renderPredict()` - 结果渲染 +- 支持自定义权重配置 + +### 4. 视图 (index.html) +新增"智能预测"按钮 + +## 文件变更 +- `application/admin/model/History.php` (+150行) +- `application/admin/controller/History.php` (+25行) +- `public/assets/js/backend/history.js` (+180行) +- `application/admin/view/history/index.html` (+1行) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.planning/quick/20260501-history-predict/ANALYSIS.md b/.planning/quick/20260501-history-predict/ANALYSIS.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e4ed823 --- /dev/null +++ b/.planning/quick/20260501-history-predict/ANALYSIS.md @@ -0,0 +1,39 @@ +## 正码与特码关联规律分析 + +### 数据范围 +- 总期数:约500期(2025111-2026120) +- 每期数据:num1-6(正码) + num7(特码) + +### 分析维度 + +#### 1. 正码平均值与特码差值 +分析每一期的正码平均值(avg)与特码(num7)的差值分布: +- 差值 = num7 - avg(num1-6) +- 统计差值的高频范围 + +#### 2. 正码范围与特码关系 +分析正码的[min, max]范围与特码的关系: +- 特码是否在正码范围内? +- 特码距离正码范围的距离分布 + +#### 3. 正码排序后与特码距离 +将num1-6排序,分析特码与最近正码的距离: +- 最短距离分布 +- 特码是否等于某个正码? + +#### 4. 和值尾数与特码尾数 +分析正码和值的尾数与特码尾数的关系: +- 同尾概率? +- 差值分布? + +#### 5. 正码区间覆盖分析 +将1-49分为5个区间,分析正码覆盖的区间与特码所在区间的关系: +- 特码是否出现在正码未覆盖的区间? + +#### 6. 波色/生肖关联 +分析正码中各波色/生肖的数量与特码波色/生肖的关系 + +--- + +### 数据提取准备 +从SQL中提取所有INSERT数据进行统计分析。 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/analysis/predict_analysis.php b/analysis/predict_analysis.php new file mode 100644 index 0000000..75d5988 --- /dev/null +++ b/analysis/predict_analysis.php @@ -0,0 +1,858 @@ + '红', 2 => '红', 3 => '蓝', 4 => '蓝', 5 => '绿', 6 => '绿', + 7 => '红', 8 => '红', 9 => '蓝', 10 => '蓝', 11 => '绿', 12 => '红', + 13 => '红', 14 => '蓝', 15 => '蓝', 16 => '绿', 17 => '绿', 18 => '红', + 19 => '红', 20 => '蓝', 21 => '绿', 22 => '绿', 23 => '红', 24 => '红', + 25 => '蓝', 26 => '蓝', 27 => '绿', 28 => '绿', 29 => '红', 30 => '红', + 31 => '蓝', 32 => '绿', 33 => '绿', 34 => '红', 35 => '红', 36 => '蓝', + 37 => '蓝', 38 => '绿', 39 => '绿', 40 => '红', 41 => '蓝', 42 => '蓝', + 43 => '绿', 44 => '绿', 45 => '红', 46 => '红', 47 => '蓝', 48 => '蓝', + 49 => '绿' +]; + +// 区间划分(1-10小号,11-30中号,31-49大号) +function getRange($num) { + if ($num >= 1 && $num <= 10) return '小号(1-10)'; + if ($num >= 11 && $num <= 30) return '中号(11-30)'; + return '大号(31-49)'; +} + +// 获取数字的尾数 +function getTail($num) { + return $num % 10; +} + +// 从SQL数据提取历史记录 +$history = []; +$sqlFile = 'C:\Users\91611\Desktop\fa_history.sql'; +$content = file_get_contents($sqlFile); + +// 解析INSERT语句 +preg_match_all("/INSERT INTO `fa_history` VALUES \((\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), '([^']+)'\)/", $content, $matches); + +for ($i = 0; $i < count($matches[0]); $i++) { + $history[] = [ + 'expect' => (int)$matches[1][$i], + 'num1' => (int)$matches[2][$i], + 'num2' => (int)$matches[3][$i], + 'num3' => (int)$matches[4][$i], + 'num4' => (int)$matches[5][$i], + 'num5' => (int)$matches[6][$i], + 'num6' => (int)$matches[7][$i], + 'num7' => (int)$matches[8][$i], + 'openTime' => $matches[9][$i] + ]; +} + +// 按期号排序 +usort($history, function($a, $b) { + return $a['expect'] - $b['expect']; +}); + +echo "=== 数据概览 ===\n"; +echo "总期数: " . count($history) . "\n"; +echo "期号范围: {$history[0]['expect']} - {$history[count($history)-1]['expect']}\n\n"; + +// 分析结果存储 +$analysisResults = []; + +// ============ 维度1: 上期正码平均值与下期特码的差值分布 ============ +echo "=== 维度1: 上期正码平均值与下期特码的差值分布 ===\n"; + +$avgDifferences = []; +$avgDiffPredictions = []; // 基于平均值的预测命中率 + +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + // 计算上期正码平均值 + $avg = ($current['num1'] + $current['num2'] + $current['num3'] + + $current['num4'] + $current['num5'] + $current['num6']) / 6; + + // 与下期特码的差值 + $diff = $next['num7'] - $avg; + $avgDifferences[] = round($diff); +} + +// 统计差值分布 +$avgDiffStats = array_count_values($avgDifferences); +ksort($avgDiffStats); + +echo "差值分布(差值=下期特码-上期正码平均值):\n"; +foreach ($avgDiffStats as $diff => $count) { + $percent = round($count / (count($history) - 1) * 100, 2); + echo " 差值 $diff: $count次 ($percent%)\n"; +} + +// 分析差值范围预测效果 +echo "\n差值范围预测效果:\n"; +$diffRanges = [ + '[-40,-20]' => 0, + '[-20,-10]' => 0, + '[-10,0]' => 0, + '[0,10]' => 0, + '[10,20]' => 0, + '[20,40]' => 0 +]; + +foreach ($avgDifferences as $diff) { + if ($diff >= -40 && $diff < -20) $diffRanges['[-40,-20]']++; + elseif ($diff >= -20 && $diff < -10) $diffRanges['[-20,-10]']++; + elseif ($diff >= -10 && $diff < 0) $diffRanges['[-10,0]']++; + elseif ($diff >= 0 && $diff < 10) $diffRanges['[0,10]']++; + elseif ($diff >= 10 && $diff < 20) $diffRanges['[10,20]']++; + elseif ($diff >= 20 && $diff <= 40) $diffRanges['[20,40]']++; +} + +$total = count($avgDifferences); +foreach ($diffRanges as $range => $count) { + $percent = round($count / $total * 100, 2); + echo " $range: $count次 ($percent%)\n"; +} + +// 基于平均值±10范围的预测命中率分析 +$hitCount = 0; +$predictionRange = 10; // 预测范围 +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + $avg = ($current['num1'] + $current['num2'] + $current['num3'] + + $current['num4'] + $current['num5'] + $current['num6']) / 6; + + // 预测范围:平均值±10 + $predictMin = max(1, floor($avg) - $predictionRange); + $predictMax = min(49, floor($avg) + $predictionRange); + + // 检查下期特码是否在预测范围内 + if ($next['num7'] >= $predictMin && $next['num7'] <= $predictMax) { + $hitCount++; + } +} +echo "\n基于平均值±$predictionRange范围的预测命中率: " . round($hitCount / (count($history) - 1) * 100, 2) . "% ($hitCount/" . (count($history)-1) . ")\n"; + +echo "\n"; + +// ============ 维度2: 上期正码范围[min,max]与下期特码的关系 ============ +echo "=== 维度2: 上期正码范围[min,max]与下期特码的关系 ===\n"; + +$inRangeCount = 0; +$belowRangeCount = 0; +$aboveRangeCount = 0; +$rangeStats = []; + +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + // 上期正码范围 + $nums = [$current['num1'], $current['num2'], $current['num3'], + $current['num4'], $current['num5'], $current['num6']]; + $min = min($nums); + $max = max($nums); + $rangeWidth = $max - $min; + + // 下期特码与范围的关系 + if ($next['num7'] >= $min && $next['num7'] <= $max) { + $inRangeCount++; + $relation = '在范围内'; + } elseif ($next['num7'] < $min) { + $belowRangeCount++; + $relation = '低于范围'; + } else { + $aboveRangeCount++; + $relation = '高于范围'; + } + + // 统计范围宽度与关系 + $rangeKey = "范围宽度$rangeWidth"; + if (!isset($rangeStats[$rangeKey])) { + $rangeStats[$rangeKey] = ['在范围内' => 0, '低于范围' => 0, '高于范围' => 0]; + } + $rangeStats[$rangeKey][$relation]++; +} + +$total = count($history) - 1; +echo "下期特码位置分布:\n"; +echo " 在上期正码范围内: $inRangeCount次 (" . round($inRangeCount / $total * 100, 2) . "%)\n"; +echo " 低于上期正码范围: $belowRangeCount次 (" . round($belowRangeCount / $total * 100, 2) . "%)\n"; +echo " 高于上期正码范围: $aboveRangeCount次 (" . round($aboveRangeCount / $total * 100, 2) . "%)\n"; + +echo "\n范围宽度与特码位置关系:\n"; +ksort($rangeStats); +foreach ($rangeStats as $width => $stats) { + $widthTotal = array_sum($stats); + echo " $width (共$widthTotal期):\n"; + foreach ($stats as $relation => $count) { + $percent = round($count / $widthTotal * 100, 2); + echo " $relation: $count次 ($percent%)\n"; + } +} + +// 计算范围宽度的平均值 +$avgRangeWidth = 0; +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $nums = [$current['num1'], $current['num2'], $current['num3'], + $current['num4'], $current['num5'], $current['num6']]; + $avgRangeWidth += max($nums) - min($nums); +} +$avgRangeWidth = round($avgRangeWidth / (count($history) - 1), 2); +echo "\n平均范围宽度: $avgRangeWidth\n"; + +echo "\n"; + +// ============ 维度3: 上期正码与下期特码的最短距离分布 ============ +echo "=== 维度3: 上期正码与下期特码的最短距离分布 ===\n"; + +$minDistances = []; +$distanceStats = []; + +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + // 计算上期正码与下期特码的最短距离 + $nums = [$current['num1'], $current['num2'], $current['num3'], + $current['num4'], $current['num5'], $current['num6']]; + + $minDist = PHP_INT_MAX; + foreach ($nums as $num) { + $dist = abs($next['num7'] - $num); + if ($dist < $minDist) $minDist = $dist; + } + $minDistances[] = $minDist; + + if (!isset($distanceStats[$minDist])) { + $distanceStats[$minDist] = 0; + } + $distanceStats[$minDist]++; +} + +ksort($distanceStats); +echo "最短距离分布:\n"; +foreach ($distanceStats as $dist => $count) { + $percent = round($count / (count($history) - 1) * 100, 2); + echo " 距离 $dist: $count次 ($percent%)\n"; +} + +// 分析距离≤5的命中率 +$closeHitCount = count(array_filter($minDistances, function($d) { return $d <= 5; })); +echo "\n最短距离≤5的比例: " . round($closeHitCount / (count($history) - 1) * 100, 2) . "% ($closeHitCount/" . (count($history)-1) . ")\n"; + +$veryCloseHitCount = count(array_filter($minDistances, function($d) { return $d <= 3; })); +echo "最短距离≤3的比例: " . round($veryCloseHitCount / (count($history) - 1) * 100, 2) . "% ($veryCloseHitCount/" . (count($history)-1) . ")\n"; + +// 基于最短距离预测(围绕上期正码±3的范围) +$predictionHit = 0; +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + $nums = [$current['num1'], $current['num2'], $current['num3'], + $current['num4'], $current['num5'], $current['num6']]; + + // 预测范围:每个正码±3 + $predicted = []; + foreach ($nums as $num) { + for ($p = max(1, $num - 3); $p <= min(49, $num + 3); $p++) { + $predicted[$p] = true; + } + } + + if (isset($predicted[$next['num7']])) { + $predictionHit++; + } +} +echo "基于正码±3范围预测命中率: " . round($predictionHit / (count($history) - 1) * 100, 2) . "% ($predictionHit/" . (count($history)-1) . ")\n"; +echo "预测范围大小: 约" . count($predicted) . "个数字\n"; + +echo "\n"; + +// ============ 维度4: 上期正码和值尾数与下期特码尾数的关系 ============ +echo "=== 维度4: 上期正码和值尾数与下期特码尾数的关系 ===\n"; + +$sumTailRelations = []; +$tailSameCount = 0; +$tailDiff1Count = 0; +$tailDiff2Count = 0; + +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + // 上期正码和值 + $sum = $current['num1'] + $current['num2'] + $current['num3'] + + $current['num4'] + $current['num5'] + $current['num6']; + $sumTail = getTail($sum); + + // 下期特码尾数 + $nextTail = getTail($next['num7']); + + // 统计尾数关系 + $tailDiff = abs($sumTail - $nextTail); + if ($tailDiff > 5) $tailDiff = 10 - $tailDiff; // 考虑环形差异 + + if (!isset($sumTailRelations[$sumTail])) { + $sumTailRelations[$sumTail] = []; + } + if (!isset($sumTailRelations[$sumTail][$nextTail])) { + $sumTailRelations[$sumTail][$nextTail] = 0; + } + $sumTailRelations[$sumTail][$nextTail]++; + + if ($tailDiff == 0) $tailSameCount++; + elseif ($tailDiff == 1) $tailDiff1Count++; + elseif ($tailDiff == 2) $tailDiff2Count++; +} + +$total = count($history) - 1; +echo "尾数关系分布:\n"; +echo " 尾数相同: $tailSameCount次 (" . round($tailSameCount / $total * 100, 2) . "%)\n"; +echo " 尾数相差1: $tailDiff1Count次 (" . round($tailDiff1Count / $total * 100, 2) . "%)\n"; +echo " 尾数相差2: $tailDiff2Count次 (" . round($tailDiff2Count / $total * 100, 2) . "%)\n"; + +echo "\n上期和值尾数→下期特码尾数转移矩阵:\n"; +for ($sumTail = 0; $sumTail <= 9; $sumTail++) { + echo " 和值尾数$sumTail → "; + if (isset($sumTailRelations[$sumTail])) { + $maxTail = -1; + $maxCount = 0; + foreach ($sumTailRelations[$sumTail] as $nextTail => $count) { + if ($count > $maxCount) { + $maxCount = $count; + $maxTail = $nextTail; + } + } + $totalCount = array_sum($sumTailRelations[$sumTail]); + $percent = round($maxCount / $totalCount * 100, 2); + echo "最可能尾数$maxTail ($maxCount次, $percent%), 其他: "; + $others = []; + foreach ($sumTailRelations[$sumTail] as $nextTail => $count) { + if ($nextTail != $maxTail) { + $others[] = "$nextTail($count)"; + } + } + echo implode(', ', $others) . "\n"; + } else { + echo "无数据\n"; + } +} + +// 基于尾数预测命中率 +$tailPredictionHit = 0; +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + $sum = $current['num1'] + $current['num2'] + $current['num3'] + + $current['num4'] + $current['num5'] + $current['num6']; + $sumTail = getTail($sum); + + // 预测:和值尾数±2范围内的尾数 + $predictTails = [ + $sumTail, + ($sumTail + 1) % 10, + ($sumTail - 1 + 10) % 10, + ($sumTail + 2) % 10, + ($sumTail - 2 + 10) % 10 + ]; + + $nextTail = getTail($next['num7']); + if (in_array($nextTail, $predictTails)) { + $tailPredictionHit++; + } +} +echo "\n基于和值尾数±2范围的尾数预测命中率: " . round($tailPredictionHit / (count($history) - 1) * 100, 2) . "% ($tailPredictionHit/" . (count($history)-1) . ")\n"; +echo "预测范围: 5个尾数,每个尾数对应约5个数字,共约25个数字\n"; + +echo "\n"; + +// ============ 维度5: 上期正码覆盖区间与下期特码所在区间的关系 ============ +echo "=== 维度5: 上期正码覆盖区间与下期特码所在区间的关系 ===\n"; + +$rangeCoverStats = []; +$rangeTransferStats = []; + +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + $nums = [$current['num1'], $current['num2'], $current['num3'], + $current['num4'], $current['num5'], $current['num6']]; + + // 上期正码覆盖的区间 + $covers = []; + foreach ($nums as $num) { + $covers[getRange($num)] = true; + } + $coverStr = implode('+', array_keys($covers)); + + // 下期特码所在区间 + $nextRange = getRange($next['num7']); + + if (!isset($rangeCoverStats[$coverStr])) { + $rangeCoverStats[$coverStr] = []; + } + if (!isset($rangeCoverStats[$coverStr][$nextRange])) { + $rangeCoverStats[$coverStr][$nextRange] = 0; + } + $rangeCoverStats[$coverStr][$nextRange]++; + + // 统计覆盖度与特码位置 + $coverCount = count($covers); + if (!isset($rangeTransferStats[$coverCount])) { + $rangeTransferStats[$coverCount] = [ + '小号(1-10)' => 0, + '中号(11-30)' => 0, + '大号(31-49)' => 0 + ]; + } + $rangeTransferStats[$coverCount][$nextRange]++; +} + +echo "上期正码覆盖区间→下期特码区间转移:\n"; +foreach ($rangeCoverStats as $cover => $nextStats) { + $totalCover = array_sum($nextStats); + echo " $cover (共$totalCover期):\n"; + foreach ($nextStats as $nextRange => $count) { + $percent = round($count / $totalCover * 100, 2); + echo " → $nextRange: $count次 ($percent%)\n"; + } +} + +echo "\n上期正码覆盖区间数量与下期特码分布:\n"; +foreach ($rangeTransferStats as $coverCount => $stats) { + $totalCover = array_sum($stats); + echo " 覆盖$coverCount个区间 (共$totalCover期):\n"; + foreach ($stats as $range => $count) { + $percent = round($count / $totalCover * 100, 2); + echo " $range: $count次 ($percent%)\n"; + } +} + +// 分析特码是否在上期正码覆盖的区间内 +$hitInCoveredRange = 0; +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + $nums = [$current['num1'], $current['num2'], $current['num3'], + $current['num4'], $current['num5'], $current['num6']]; + + $covers = []; + foreach ($nums as $num) { + $covers[getRange($num)] = true; + } + + $nextRange = getRange($next['num7']); + if (isset($covers[$nextRange])) { + $hitInCoveredRange++; + } +} +echo "\n下期特码在上期正码覆盖区间内的比例: " . round($hitInCoveredRange / (count($history) - 1) * 100, 2) . "% ($hitInCoveredRange/" . (count($history)-1) . ")\n"; + +echo "\n"; + +// ============ 维度6: 上期正码波色分布与下期特码波色的关系 ============ +echo "=== 维度6: 上期正码波色分布与下期特码波色的关系 ===\n"; + +$colorDistributionStats = []; +$colorTransferStats = []; +$dominantColorStats = []; + +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + // 上期正码波色分布 + $colors = []; + $nums = [$current['num1'], $current['num2'], $current['num3'], + $current['num4'], $current['num5'], $current['num6']]; + foreach ($nums as $num) { + $color = $colorMap[$num]; + if (!isset($colors[$color])) { + $colors[$color] = 0; + } + $colors[$color]++; + } + + // 波色分布字符串 + $colorStr = "红{$colors['红']}蓝{$colors['蓝']}绿{$colors['绿']}"; + + // 下期特码波色 + $nextColor = $colorMap[$next['num7']]; + + // 统计波色分布→特码波色 + if (!isset($colorDistributionStats[$colorStr])) { + $colorDistributionStats[$colorStr] = []; + } + if (!isset($colorDistributionStats[$colorStr][$nextColor])) { + $colorDistributionStats[$colorStr][$nextColor] = 0; + } + $colorDistributionStats[$colorStr][$nextColor]++; + + // 统计主导波色→特码波色 + $dominantColor = array_keys($colors, max($colors))[0]; + if (!isset($dominantColorStats[$dominantColor])) { + $dominantColorStats[$dominantColor] = []; + } + if (!isset($dominantColorStats[$dominantColor][$nextColor])) { + $dominantColorStats[$dominantColor][$nextColor] = 0; + } + $dominantColorStats[$dominantColor][$nextColor]++; +} + +echo "上期正码波色分布→下期特码波色转移:\n"; +// 按出现次数排序 +$sortedColorDist = $colorDistributionStats; +uasort($sortedColorDist, function($a, $b) { + return array_sum($b) - array_sum($a); +}); + +foreach ($sortedColorDist as $dist => $nextStats) { + $totalDist = array_sum($nextStats); + if ($totalDist >= 5) { // 只显示出现5次以上的分布 + echo " $dist (共$totalDist期):\n"; + foreach ($nextStats as $nextColor => $count) { + $percent = round($count / $totalDist * 100, 2); + echo " → $nextColor: $count次 ($percent%)\n"; + } + } +} + +echo "\n上期主导波色→下期特码波色转移:\n"; +foreach ($dominantColorStats as $dominant => $nextStats) { + $totalDom = array_sum($nextStats); + echo " 主导$dominant (共$totalDom期):\n"; + foreach ($nextStats as $nextColor => $count) { + $percent = round($count / $totalDom * 100, 2); + echo " → $nextColor: $count次 ($percent%)\n"; + } +} + +// 基于主导波色预测命中率 +$dominantPredictionHit = 0; +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + $nums = [$current['num1'], $current['num2'], $current['num3'], + $current['num4'], $current['num5'], $current['num6']]; + $colors = []; + foreach ($nums as $num) { + $color = $colorMap[$num]; + if (!isset($colors[$color])) $colors[$color] = 0; + $colors[$color]++; + } + + $dominantColor = array_keys($colors, max($colors))[0]; + $nextColor = $colorMap[$next['num7']]; + + if ($dominantColor == $nextColor) { + $dominantPredictionHit++; + } +} +echo "\n主导波色预测命中率: " . round($dominantPredictionHit / (count($history) - 1) * 100, 2) . "% ($dominantPredictionHit/" . (count($history)-1) . ")\n"; + +// 基于上期正码波色预测(扩展到两种最可能波色) +$expandedColorPredictionHit = 0; +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + $nums = [$current['num1'], $current['num2'], $current['num3'], + $current['num4'], $current['num5'], $current['num6']]; + $colors = ['红' => 0, '蓝' => 0, '绿' => 0]; + foreach ($nums as $num) { + $colors[$colorMap[$num]]++; + } + + // 选择出现次数最多的两种波色 + arsort($colors); + $topColors = array_keys(array_slice($colors, 0, 2, true)); + + $nextColor = $colorMap[$next['num7']]; + if (in_array($nextColor, $topColors)) { + $expandedColorPredictionHit++; + } +} +echo "扩展到两种主导波色预测命中率: " . round($expandedColorPredictionHit / (count($history) - 1) * 100, 2) . "% ($expandedColorPredictionHit/" . (count($history)-1) . ")\n"; + +echo "\n"; + +// ============ 维度7: 上期特码与下期特码的转移关系(马尔可夫分析) ============ +echo "=== 维度7: 上期特码与下期特码的转移关系(马尔可夫分析) ===\n"; + +$specialTransfer = []; +$specialRangeTransfer = []; + +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + $currentSpecial = $current['num7']; + $nextSpecial = $next['num7']; + + // 精确转移统计 + if (!isset($specialTransfer[$currentSpecial])) { + $specialTransfer[$currentSpecial] = []; + } + if (!isset($specialTransfer[$currentSpecial][$nextSpecial])) { + $specialTransfer[$currentSpecial][$nextSpecial] = 0; + } + $specialTransfer[$currentSpecial][$nextSpecial]++; + + // 区间转移统计 + $currentRange = getRange($currentSpecial); + $nextRange = getRange($nextSpecial); + + if (!isset($specialRangeTransfer[$currentRange])) { + $specialRangeTransfer[$currentRange] = []; + } + if (!isset($specialRangeTransfer[$currentRange][$nextRange])) { + $specialRangeTransfer[$currentRange][$nextRange] = 0; + } + $specialRangeTransfer[$currentRange][$nextRange]++; +} + +echo "特码区间转移矩阵:\n"; +foreach ($specialRangeTransfer as $fromRange => $toStats) { + $totalFrom = array_sum($toStats); + echo " $fromRange → :\n"; + foreach ($toStats as $toRange => $count) { + $percent = round($count / $totalFrom * 100, 2); + echo " $toRange: $count次 ($percent%)\n"; + } +} + +// 找出高频转移 +echo "\n高频特码转移(出现2次以上):\n"; +foreach ($specialTransfer as $from => $toStats) { + foreach ($toStats as $to => $count) { + if ($count >= 2) { + echo " 特码$from → 特码$to: $count次\n"; + } + } +} + +// 基于特码区间预测 +$specialRangePredictionHit = 0; +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + $currentRange = getRange($current['num7']); + + // 找出该区间最可能转移到的两个区间 + $transferStats = $specialRangeTransfer[$currentRange]; + arsort($transferStats); + $topRanges = array_keys(array_slice($transferStats, 0, 2, true)); + + $nextRange = getRange($next['num7']); + if (in_array($nextRange, $topRanges)) { + $specialRangePredictionHit++; + } +} +echo "\n基于特码区间转移预测(前2区间)命中率: " . round($specialRangePredictionHit / (count($history) - 1) * 100, 2) . "% ($specialRangePredictionHit/" . (count($history)-1) . ")\n"; + +echo "\n"; + +// ============ 综合分析:寻找40%以上命中率的规律 ============ +echo "=== 综合分析:寻找40%以上命中率的规律 ===\n\n"; + +// 综合预测模型 +echo "【综合预测模型测试】\n\n"; + +$combinedHits = [ + '平均值±10范围' => $hitCount, + '正码±3范围' => $predictionHit, + '和值尾数±2尾数范围' => $tailPredictionHit, + '覆盖区间预测' => $hitInCoveredRange, + '主导波色预测' => $dominantPredictionHit, + '双波色预测' => $expandedColorPredictionHit, + '特码区间转移' => $specialRangePredictionHit +]; + +echo "各维度预测命中率汇总:\n"; +$totalPredictions = count($history) - 1; +foreach ($combinedHits as $name => $hit) { + $percent = round($hit / $totalPredictions * 100, 2); + $status = $percent >= 40 ? '【达标】' : ''; + echo " $name: $percent% ($hit/$totalPredictions) $status\n"; +} + +// 组合预测测试 +echo "\n组合预测测试:\n"; + +$comboHits = 0; +$comboPlusHits = 0; + +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + $nums = [$current['num1'], $current['num2'], $current['num3'], + $current['num4'], $current['num5'], $current['num6']]; + + // 方法1:平均值±15范围 + $avg = array_sum($nums) / 6; + $avgRange = range(max(1, floor($avg) - 15), min(49, floor($avg) + 15)); + + // 方法2:正码±5范围 + $numRange = []; + foreach ($nums as $num) { + for ($p = max(1, $num - 5); $p <= min(49, $num + 5); $p++) { + $numRange[$p] = true; + } + } + + // 方法3:和值尾数±3范围的所有数字 + $sum = array_sum($nums); + $sumTail = getTail($sum); + $tailRange = []; + for ($t = $sumTail - 3; $t <= $sumTail + 3; $t++) { + $actualTail = ($t + 10) % 10; + for ($n = 1; $n <= 49; $n++) { + if (getTail($n) == $actualTail) { + $tailRange[$n] = true; + } + } + } + + // 组合1:平均值范围 OR 正码范围 + if (in_array($next['num7'], $avgRange) || isset($numRange[$next['num7']])) { + $comboHits++; + } + + // 组合2:平均值范围 OR 正码范围 OR 尾数范围 + if (in_array($next['num7'], $avgRange) || isset($numRange[$next['num7']]) || isset($tailRange[$next['num7']])) { + $comboPlusHits++; + } +} + +echo "组合1(平均值±15 OR 正码±5)命中率: " . round($comboHits / $totalPredictions * 100, 2) . "% ($comboHits/$totalPredictions)\n"; +echo "组合2(平均值±15 OR 正码±5 OR 尾数±3)命中率: " . round($comboPlusHits / $totalPredictions * 100, 2) . "% ($comboPlusHits/$totalPredictions)\n"; + +// 波色+区间组合 +echo "\n波色+区间组合预测:\n"; +$colorRangeComboHit = 0; +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + $nums = [$current['num1'], $current['num2'], $current['num3'], + $current['num4'], $current['num5'], $current['num6']]; + + // 获取上期正码覆盖的波色和区间 + $colors = ['红' => 0, '蓝' => 0, '绿' => 0]; + $ranges = ['小号(1-10)' => 0, '中号(11-30)' => 0, '大号(31-49)' => 0]; + foreach ($nums as $num) { + $colors[$colorMap[$num]]++; + $ranges[getRange($num)]++; + } + + // 选择最可能的波色和区间 + arsort($colors); + arsort($ranges); + $topColor = array_keys($colors)[0]; + $topRange = array_keys($ranges)[0]; + + // 预测:该波色+该区间的交集 + $predictNums = []; + foreach (range(1, 49) as $n) { + if ($colorMap[$n] == $topColor && getRange($n) == $topRange) { + $predictNums[$n] = true; + } + } + + if (isset($predictNums[$next['num7']])) { + $colorRangeComboHit++; + } +} +echo "波色+区间交集预测命中率: " . round($colorRangeComboHit / $totalPredictions * 100, 2) . "% ($colorRangeComboHit/$totalPredictions)\n"; +echo "预测范围大小: " . count($predictNums) . "个数字\n"; + +// 扩展波色+区间(前2波色+前2区间) +$colorRangeCombo2Hit = 0; +for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $current = $history[$i]; + $next = $history[$i + 1]; + + $nums = [$current['num1'], $current['num2'], $current['num3'], + $current['num4'], $current['num5'], $current['num6']]; + + $colors = ['红' => 0, '蓝' => 0, '绿' => 0]; + $ranges = ['小号(1-10)' => 0, '中号(11-30)' => 0, '大号(31-49)' => 0]; + foreach ($nums as $num) { + $colors[$colorMap[$num]]++; + $ranges[getRange($num)]++; + } + + arsort($colors); + arsort($ranges); + $top2Colors = array_keys(array_slice($colors, 0, 2, true)); + $top2Ranges = array_keys(array_slice($ranges, 0, 2, true)); + + $predictNums2 = []; + foreach (range(1, 49) as $n) { + if (in_array($colorMap[$n], $top2Colors) && in_array(getRange($n), $top2Ranges)) { + $predictNums2[$n] = true; + } + } + + if (isset($predictNums2[$next['num7']])) { + $colorRangeCombo2Hit++; + } +} +echo "前2波色+前2区间交集预测命中率: " . round($colorRangeCombo2Hit / $totalPredictions * 100, 2) . "% ($colorRangeCombo2Hit/$totalPredictions)\n"; + +echo "\n"; + +// ============ 总结:40%以上命中率的规律 ============ +echo "=== 总结:达到40%以上命中率的规律 ===\n\n"; + +$highHitRules = []; +foreach ($combinedHits as $name => $hit) { + $percent = round($hit / $totalPredictions * 100, 2); + if ($percent >= 40) { + $highHitRules[] = [ + 'name' => $name, + 'percent' => $percent, + 'hit' => $hit, + 'total' => $totalPredictions + ]; + } +} + +if (count($highHitRules) > 0) { + foreach ($highHitRules as $rule) { + echo "【{$rule['name']}】命中率: {$rule['percent']}% ({$rule['hit']}/{$rule['total']})\n"; + } +} else { + echo "单维度分析中没有达到40%以上命中率的规律\n"; +} + +// 组合规律 +echo "\n组合规律命中率:\n"; +echo "组合1(平均值±15 OR 正码±5): " . round($comboHits / $totalPredictions * 100, 2) . "%\n"; +echo "组合2(平均值±15 OR 正码±5 OR 尾数±3): " . round($comboPlusHits / $totalPredictions * 100, 2) . "%\n"; +echo "前2波色+前2区间交集: " . round($colorRangeCombo2Hit / $totalPredictions * 100, 2) . "%\n"; + +echo "\n分析完成!\n"; \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/analysis/predict_analysis.py b/analysis/predict_analysis.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..de4768d --- /dev/null +++ b/analysis/predict_analysis.py @@ -0,0 +1,589 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +# -*- coding: utf-8 -*- +""" +上期正码与当期特码关联规律分析脚本 + +分析维度: +1. 上期正码平均值与下期特码的差值分布 +2. 上期正码范围[min,max]与下期特码的关系 +3. 上期正码与下期特码的最短距离分布 +4. 上期正码和值尾数与下期特码尾数的关系 +5. 上期正码覆盖区间与下期特码所在区间的关系 +6. 上期正码波色分布与下期特码波色的关系 +7. 上期特码与下期特码的转移关系 +""" + +import re +from collections import defaultdict +from pathlib import Path + +# 波色映射表 +COLOR_MAP = { + 1: '红', 2: '红', 3: '蓝', 4: '蓝', 5: '绿', 6: '绿', + 7: '红', 8: '红', 9: '蓝', 10: '蓝', 11: '绿', 12: '红', + 13: '红', 14: '蓝', 15: '蓝', 16: '绿', 17: '绿', 18: '红', + 19: '红', 20: '蓝', 21: '绿', 22: '绿', 23: '红', 24: '红', + 25: '蓝', 26: '蓝', 27: '绿', 28: '绿', 29: '红', 30: '红', + 31: '蓝', 32: '绿', 33: '绿', 34: '红', 35: '红', 36: '蓝', + 37: '蓝', 38: '绿', 39: '绿', 40: '红', 41: '蓝', 42: '蓝', + 43: '绿', 44: '绿', 45: '红', 46: '红', 47: '蓝', 48: '蓝', + 49: '绿' +} + +def get_range(num): + """获取数字所在的区间""" + if 1 <= num <= 10: + return '小号(1-10)' + elif 11 <= num <= 30: + return '中号(11-30)' + else: + return '大号(31-49)' + +def get_tail(num): + """获取数字的尾数""" + return num % 10 + +def parse_sql_file(filepath): + """解析SQL文件,提取历史数据""" + content = Path(filepath).read_text(encoding='utf-8') + + # 解析INSERT语句 + pattern = r"INSERT INTO `fa_history` VALUES \((\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), '([^']+)'" + matches = re.findall(pattern, content) + + history = [] + for match in matches: + history.append({ + 'expect': int(match[0]), + 'num1': int(match[1]), + 'num2': int(match[2]), + 'num3': int(match[3]), + 'num4': int(match[4]), + 'num5': int(match[5]), + 'num6': int(match[6]), + 'num7': int(match[7]), + 'openTime': match[8] + }) + + # 按期号排序 + history.sort(key=lambda x: x['expect']) + return history + +def analyze(): + """主分析函数""" + # 解析数据 + history = parse_sql_file(r'C:\Users\91611\Desktop\fa_history.sql') + + print("=== 数据概览 ===") + print(f"总期数: {len(history)}") + print(f"期号范围: {history[0]['expect']} - {history[-1]['expect']}") + print() + + total_predictions = len(history) - 1 + + # ============ 维度1: 上期正码平均值与下期特码的差值分布 ============ + print("=== 维度1: 上期正码平均值与下期特码的差值分布 ===") + + avg_diffs = [] + hit_count_avg = 0 + prediction_range = 10 + + for i in range(len(history) - 1): + current = history[i] + next_record = history[i + 1] + + # 计算上期正码平均值 + avg = (current['num1'] + current['num2'] + current['num3'] + + current['num4'] + current['num5'] + current['num6']) / 6 + + # 与下期特码的差值 + diff = next_record['num7'] - avg + avg_diffs.append(round(diff)) + + # 预测范围:平均值±10 + predict_min = max(1, int(avg) - prediction_range) + predict_max = min(49, int(avg) + prediction_range) + + if predict_min <= next_record['num7'] <= predict_max: + hit_count_avg += 1 + + # 统计差值分布 + diff_stats = defaultdict(int) + for d in avg_diffs: + diff_stats[d] += 1 + + print("差值分布(差值=下期特码-上期正码平均值):") + for diff in sorted(diff_stats.keys()): + count = diff_stats[diff] + percent = round(count / total_predictions * 100, 2) + print(f" 差值 {diff}: {count}次 ({percent}%)") + + # 差值范围分布 + print("\n差值范围分布:") + ranges = [ + ('[-40,-20]', lambda d: -40 <= d < -20), + ('[-20,-10]', lambda d: -20 <= d < -10), + ('[-10,0]', lambda d: -10 <= d < 0), + ('[0,10]', lambda d: 0 <= d < 10), + ('[10,20]', lambda d: 10 <= d < 20), + ('[20,40]', lambda d: 20 <= d <= 40) + ] + for range_name, condition in ranges: + count = sum(1 for d in avg_diffs if condition(d)) + percent = round(count / total_predictions * 100, 2) + print(f" {range_name}: {count}次 ({percent}%)") + + print(f"\n基于平均值±{prediction_range}范围的预测命中率: {round(hit_count_avg / total_predictions * 100, 2)}% ({hit_count_avg}/{total_predictions})") + print() + + # ============ 维度2: 上期正码范围[min,max]与下期特码的关系 ============ + print("=== 维度2: 上期正码范围[min,max]与下期特码的关系 ===") + + in_range_count = 0 + below_range_count = 0 + above_range_count = 0 + range_width_stats = defaultdict(lambda: {'在范围内': 0, '低于范围': 0, '高于范围': 0}) + + for i in range(len(history) - 1): + current = history[i] + next_record = history[i + 1] + + nums = [current['num1'], current['num2'], current['num3'], + current['num4'], current['num5'], current['num6']] + min_num = min(nums) + max_num = max(nums) + range_width = max_num - min_num + + if min_num <= next_record['num7'] <= max_num: + in_range_count += 1 + relation = '在范围内' + elif next_record['num7'] < min_num: + below_range_count += 1 + relation = '低于范围' + else: + above_range_count += 1 + relation = '高于范围' + + range_width_stats[range_width][relation] += 1 + + print("下期特码位置分布:") + print(f" 在上期正码范围内: {in_range_count}次 ({round(in_range_count / total_predictions * 100, 2)}%)") + print(f" 低于上期正码范围: {below_range_count}次 ({round(below_range_count / total_predictions * 100, 2)}%)") + print(f" 高于上期正码范围: {above_range_count}次 ({round(above_range_count / total_predictions * 100, 2)}%)") + + print("\n范围宽度与特码位置关系:") + for width in sorted(range_width_stats.keys()): + stats = range_width_stats[width] + width_total = sum(stats.values()) + print(f" 范围宽度{width} (共{width_total}期):") + for relation, count in stats.items(): + percent = round(count / width_total * 100, 2) + print(f" {relation}: {count}次 ({percent}%)") + + avg_range_width = sum(max([h['num1'], h['num2'], h['num3'], h['num4'], h['num5'], h['num6']]) - + min([h['num1'], h['num2'], h['num3'], h['num4'], h['num5'], h['num6']]) + for h in history[:-1]) / total_predictions + print(f"\n平均范围宽度: {round(avg_range_width, 2)}") + print() + + # ============ 维度3: 上期正码与下期特码的最短距离分布 ============ + print("=== 维度3: 上期正码与下期特码的最短距离分布 ===") + + min_distances = [] + prediction_hit_dist = 0 + + for i in range(len(history) - 1): + current = history[i] + next_record = history[i + 1] + + nums = [current['num1'], current['num2'], current['num3'], + current['num4'], current['num5'], current['num6']] + + min_dist = min(abs(next_record['num7'] - num) for num in nums) + min_distances.append(min_dist) + + # 预测范围:每个正码±3 + predicted = set() + for num in nums: + for p in range(max(1, num - 3), min(50, num + 4)): + predicted.add(p) + + if next_record['num7'] in predicted: + prediction_hit_dist += 1 + + dist_stats = defaultdict(int) + for d in min_distances: + dist_stats[d] += 1 + + print("最短距离分布:") + for dist in sorted(dist_stats.keys()): + count = dist_stats[dist] + percent = round(count / total_predictions * 100, 2) + print(f" 距离 {dist}: {count}次 ({percent}%)") + + close_hit = sum(1 for d in min_distances if d <= 5) + very_close_hit = sum(1 for d in min_distances if d <= 3) + + print(f"\n最短距离≤5的比例: {round(close_hit / total_predictions * 100, 2)}% ({close_hit}/{total_predictions})") + print(f"最短距离≤3的比例: {round(very_close_hit / total_predictions * 100, 2)}% ({very_close_hit}/{total_predictions})") + print(f"基于正码±3范围预测命中率: {round(prediction_hit_dist / total_predictions * 100, 2)}% ({prediction_hit_dist}/{total_predictions})") + + # 计算预测范围大小 + nums_sample = [history[0]['num1'], history[0]['num2'], history[0]['num3'], + history[0]['num4'], history[0]['num5'], history[0]['num6']] + predicted_sample = set() + for num in nums_sample: + for p in range(max(1, num - 3), min(50, num + 4)): + predicted_sample.add(p) + print(f"预测范围大小: 约{len(predicted_sample)}个数字") + print() + + # ============ 维度4: 上期正码和值尾数与下期特码尾数的关系 ============ + print("=== 维度4: 上期正码和值尾数与下期特码尾数的关系 ===") + + sum_tail_relations = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(int)) + tail_same_count = 0 + tail_diff1_count = 0 + tail_diff2_count = 0 + tail_prediction_hit = 0 + + for i in range(len(history) - 1): + current = history[i] + next_record = history[i + 1] + + sum_val = current['num1'] + current['num2'] + current['num3'] + \ + current['num4'] + current['num5'] + current['num6'] + sum_tail = get_tail(sum_val) + next_tail = get_tail(next_record['num7']) + + sum_tail_relations[sum_tail][next_tail] += 1 + + # 计算尾数差异(考虑环形) + tail_diff = abs(sum_tail - next_tail) + if tail_diff > 5: + tail_diff = 10 - tail_diff + + if tail_diff == 0: + tail_same_count += 1 + elif tail_diff == 1: + tail_diff1_count += 1 + elif tail_diff == 2: + tail_diff2_count += 1 + + # 预测:和值尾数±2范围内的尾数 + predict_tails = {sum_tail, (sum_tail + 1) % 10, (sum_tail - 1 + 10) % 10, + (sum_tail + 2) % 10, (sum_tail - 2 + 10) % 10} + if next_tail in predict_tails: + tail_prediction_hit += 1 + + print("尾数关系分布:") + print(f" 尾数相同: {tail_same_count}次 ({round(tail_same_count / total_predictions * 100, 2)}%)") + print(f" 尾数相差1: {tail_diff1_count}次 ({round(tail_diff1_count / total_predictions * 100, 2)}%)") + print(f" 尾数相差2: {tail_diff2_count}次 ({round(tail_diff2_count / total_predictions * 100, 2)}%)") + + print("\n上期和值尾数→下期特码尾数转移矩阵:") + for sum_tail in range(10): + if sum_tail in sum_tail_relations: + stats = sum_tail_relations[sum_tail] + max_tail = max(stats, key=stats.get) + max_count = stats[max_tail] + total = sum(stats.values()) + percent = round(max_count / total * 100, 2) + others = [f"{t}({c})" for t, c in stats.items() if t != max_tail] + print(f" 和值尾数{sum_tail} → 最可能尾数{max_tail} ({max_count}次, {percent}%), 其他: {', '.join(others)}") + + print(f"\n基于和值尾数±2范围的尾数预测命中率: {round(tail_prediction_hit / total_predictions * 100, 2)}% ({tail_prediction_hit}/{total_predictions})") + print("预测范围: 5个尾数,每个尾数对应约5个数字,共约25个数字") + print() + + # ============ 维度5: 上期正码覆盖区间与下期特码所在区间的关系 ============ + print("=== 维度5: 上期正码覆盖区间与下期特码所在区间的关系 ===") + + range_cover_stats = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(int)) + range_transfer_stats = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(int)) + hit_in_covered_range = 0 + + for i in range(len(history) - 1): + current = history[i] + next_record = history[i + 1] + + nums = [current['num1'], current['num2'], current['num3'], + current['num4'], current['num5'], current['num6']] + + covers = set(get_range(num) for num in nums) + cover_str = '+'.join(sorted(covers)) + next_range = get_range(next_record['num7']) + + range_cover_stats[cover_str][next_range] += 1 + range_transfer_stats[len(covers)][next_range] += 1 + + if next_range in covers: + hit_in_covered_range += 1 + + print("上期正码覆盖区间→下期特码区间转移:") + for cover, next_stats in sorted(range_cover_stats.items(), key=lambda x: -sum(x[1].values())): + total_cover = sum(next_stats.values()) + print(f" {cover} (共{total_cover}期):") + for next_range, count in next_stats.items(): + percent = round(count / total_cover * 100, 2) + print(f" → {next_range}: {count}次 ({percent}%)") + + print("\n上期正码覆盖区间数量与下期特码分布:") + for cover_count, stats in sorted(range_transfer_stats.items()): + total_cover = sum(stats.values()) + print(f" 覆盖{cover_count}个区间 (共{total_cover}期):") + for range_name, count in stats.items(): + percent = round(count / total_cover * 100, 2) + print(f" {range_name}: {count}次 ({percent}%)") + + print(f"\n下期特码在上期正码覆盖区间内的比例: {round(hit_in_covered_range / total_predictions * 100, 2)}% ({hit_in_covered_range}/{total_predictions})") + print() + + # ============ 维度6: 上期正码波色分布与下期特码波色的关系 ============ + print("=== 维度6: 上期正码波色分布与下期特码波色的关系 ===") + + color_distribution_stats = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(int)) + dominant_color_stats = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(int)) + dominant_prediction_hit = 0 + expanded_color_prediction_hit = 0 + + for i in range(len(history) - 1): + current = history[i] + next_record = history[i + 1] + + nums = [current['num1'], current['num2'], current['num3'], + current['num4'], current['num5'], current['num6']] + + colors = defaultdict(int) + for num in nums: + colors[COLOR_MAP[num]] += 1 + + color_str = f"红{colors['红']}蓝{colors['蓝']}绿{colors['绿']}" + next_color = COLOR_MAP[next_record['num7']] + + color_distribution_stats[color_str][next_color] += 1 + + # 主导波色 + dominant_color = max(colors, key=colors.get) + dominant_color_stats[dominant_color][next_color] += 1 + + if dominant_color == next_color: + dominant_prediction_hit += 1 + + # 扩展到两种波色 + top2_colors = sorted(colors, key=colors.get, reverse=True)[:2] + if next_color in top2_colors: + expanded_color_prediction_hit += 1 + + print("上期正码波色分布→下期特码波色转移 (出现5次以上的):") + sorted_color_dist = sorted(color_distribution_stats.items(), + key=lambda x: -sum(x[1].values())) + for dist, next_stats in sorted_color_dist: + total_dist = sum(next_stats.values()) + if total_dist >= 5: + print(f" {dist} (共{total_dist}期):") + for next_color, count in next_stats.items(): + percent = round(count / total_dist * 100, 2) + print(f" → {next_color}: {count}次 ({percent}%)") + + print("\n上期主导波色→下期特码波色转移:") + for dominant, next_stats in dominant_color_stats.items(): + total_dom = sum(next_stats.values()) + print(f" 主导{dominant} (共{total_dom}期):") + for next_color, count in next_stats.items(): + percent = round(count / total_dom * 100, 2) + print(f" → {next_color}: {count}次 ({percent}%)") + + print(f"\n主导波色预测命中率: {round(dominant_prediction_hit / total_predictions * 100, 2)}% ({dominant_prediction_hit}/{total_predictions})") + print(f"扩展到两种主导波色预测命中率: {round(expanded_color_prediction_hit / total_predictions * 100, 2)}% ({expanded_color_prediction_hit}/{total_predictions})") + print() + + # ============ 维度7: 上期特码与下期特码的转移关系 ============ + print("=== 维度7: 上期特码与下期特码的转移关系(马尔可夫分析) ===") + + special_transfer = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(int)) + special_range_transfer = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(int)) + special_range_prediction_hit = 0 + + for i in range(len(history) - 1): + current = history[i] + next_record = history[i + 1] + + current_special = current['num7'] + next_special = next_record['num7'] + + special_transfer[current_special][next_special] += 1 + + current_range = get_range(current_special) + next_range = get_range(next_special) + special_range_transfer[current_range][next_range] += 1 + + print("特码区间转移矩阵:") + for from_range, to_stats in special_range_transfer.items(): + total_from = sum(to_stats.values()) + print(f" {from_range} → :") + for to_range, count in to_stats.items(): + percent = round(count / total_from * 100, 2) + print(f" {to_range}: {count}次 ({percent}%)") + + # 高频特码转移 + print("\n高频特码转移(出现2次以上):") + for from_num, to_stats in special_transfer.items(): + for to_num, count in to_stats.items(): + if count >= 2: + print(f" 特码{from_num} → 特码{to_num}: {count}次") + + # 基于特码区间预测 + for i in range(len(history) - 1): + current = history[i] + next_record = history[i + 1] + + current_range = get_range(current['num7']) + transfer_stats = special_range_transfer[current_range] + top_ranges = sorted(transfer_stats, key=transfer_stats.get, reverse=True)[:2] + + next_range = get_range(next_record['num7']) + if next_range in top_ranges: + special_range_prediction_hit += 1 + + print(f"\n基于特码区间转移预测(前2区间)命中率: {round(special_range_prediction_hit / total_predictions * 100, 2)}% ({special_range_prediction_hit}/{total_predictions})") + print() + + # ============ 综合分析 ============ + print("=== 综合分析:寻找40%以上命中率的规律 ===") + print() + + combined_hits = { + '平均值±10范围': hit_count_avg, + '正码±3范围': prediction_hit_dist, + '和值尾数±2尾数范围': tail_prediction_hit, + '覆盖区间预测': hit_in_covered_range, + '主导波色预测': dominant_prediction_hit, + '双波色预测': expanded_color_prediction_hit, + '特码区间转移': special_range_prediction_hit + } + + print("各维度预测命中率汇总:") + for name, hit in combined_hits.items(): + percent = round(hit / total_predictions * 100, 2) + status = '【达标】' if percent >= 40 else '' + print(f" {name}: {percent}% ({hit}/{total_predictions}) {status}") + + # 组合预测测试 + print("\n组合预测测试:") + + combo_hits = 0 + combo_plus_hits = 0 + + for i in range(len(history) - 1): + current = history[i] + next_record = history[i + 1] + + nums = [current['num1'], current['num2'], current['num3'], + current['num4'], current['num5'], current['num6']] + + # 方法1:平均值±15范围 + avg = sum(nums) / 6 + avg_range = set(range(max(1, int(avg) - 15), min(50, int(avg) + 16))) + + # 方法2:正码±5范围 + num_range = set() + for num in nums: + for p in range(max(1, num - 5), min(50, num + 6)): + num_range.add(p) + + # 方法3:和值尾数±3范围 + sum_val = sum(nums) + sum_tail = get_tail(sum_val) + tail_range = set() + for t in range(sum_tail - 3, sum_tail + 4): + actual_tail = (t + 10) % 10 + for n in range(1, 50): + if get_tail(n) == actual_tail: + tail_range.add(n) + + # 组合1 + if next_record['num7'] in avg_range or next_record['num7'] in num_range: + combo_hits += 1 + + # 组合2 + if next_record['num7'] in avg_range or next_record['num7'] in num_range or next_record['num7'] in tail_range: + combo_plus_hits += 1 + + print(f"组合1(平均值±15 OR 正码±5)命中率: {round(combo_hits / total_predictions * 100, 2)}% ({combo_hits}/{total_predictions})") + print(f"组合2(平均值±15 OR 正码±5 OR 尾数±3)命中率: {round(combo_plus_hits / total_predictions * 100, 2)}% ({combo_plus_hits}/{total_predictions})") + + # 波色+区间组合 + print("\n波色+区间组合预测:") + + color_range_combo_hit = 0 + color_range_combo2_hit = 0 + last_predict_count = 0 + last_predict_count2 = 0 + + for i in range(len(history) - 1): + current = history[i] + next_record = history[i + 1] + + nums = [current['num1'], current['num2'], current['num3'], + current['num4'], current['num5'], current['num6']] + + colors = defaultdict(int) + ranges = defaultdict(int) + for num in nums: + colors[COLOR_MAP[num]] += 1 + ranges[get_range(num)] += 1 + + # 前1波色+前1区间 + top_color = max(colors, key=colors.get) + top_range = max(ranges, key=ranges.get) + + predict_nums = {n for n in range(1, 50) if COLOR_MAP[n] == top_color and get_range(n) == top_range} + + if next_record['num7'] in predict_nums: + color_range_combo_hit += 1 + last_predict_count = len(predict_nums) + + # 前2波色+前2区间 + top2_colors = sorted(colors, key=colors.get, reverse=True)[:2] + top2_ranges = sorted(ranges, key=ranges.get, reverse=True)[:2] + + predict_nums2 = {n for n in range(1, 50) + if COLOR_MAP[n] in top2_colors and get_range(n) in top2_ranges} + + if next_record['num7'] in predict_nums2: + color_range_combo2_hit += 1 + last_predict_count2 = len(predict_nums2) + + print(f"波色+区间交集预测命中率: {round(color_range_combo_hit / total_predictions * 100, 2)}% ({color_range_combo_hit}/{total_predictions})") + print(f"预测范围大小: {last_predict_count}个数字") + print(f"前2波色+前2区间交集预测命中率: {round(color_range_combo2_hit / total_predictions * 100, 2)}% ({color_range_combo2_hit}/{total_predictions})") + print(f"预测范围大小: {last_predict_count2}个数字") + + print() + + # ============ 总结 ============ + print("=== 总结:达到40%以上命中率的规律 ===") + print() + + high_hit_rules = [] + for name, hit in combined_hits.items(): + percent = round(hit / total_predictions * 100, 2) + if percent >= 40: + high_hit_rules.append((name, percent, hit, total_predictions)) + + if high_hit_rules: + for name, percent, hit, total in high_hit_rules: + print(f"【{name}】命中率: {percent}% ({hit}/{total})") + else: + print("单维度分析中没有达到40%以上命中率的规律") + + print("\n组合规律命中率:") + print(f"组合1(平均值±15 OR 正码±5): {round(combo_hits / total_predictions * 100, 2)}%") + print(f"组合2(平均值±15 OR 正码±5 OR 尾数±3): {round(combo_plus_hits / total_predictions * 100, 2)}%") + print(f"前2波色+前2区间交集: {round(color_range_combo2_hit / total_predictions * 100, 2)}%") + + print("\n分析完成!") + +if __name__ == '__main__': + analyze() \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/analysis_history.php b/analysis_history.php new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c9f805b --- /dev/null +++ b/analysis_history.php @@ -0,0 +1,395 @@ + '红', 2 => '红', 3 => '蓝', 4 => '蓝', 5 => '绿', 6 => '绿', + 7 => '红', 8 => '红', 9 => '蓝', 10 => '蓝', 11 => '绿', 12 => '红', + 13 => '红', 14 => '蓝', 15 => '蓝', 16 => '绿', 17 => '绿', 18 => '红', + 19 => '红', 20 => '蓝', 21 => '绿', 22 => '绿', 23 => '红', 24 => '红', + 25 => '蓝', 26 => '蓝', 27 => '绿', 28 => '绿', 29 => '红', 30 => '红', + 31 => '蓝', 32 => '绿', 33 => '绿', 34 => '红', 35 => '红', 36 => '蓝', + 37 => '蓝', 38 => '绿', 39 => '绿', 40 => '红', 41 => '蓝', 42 => '蓝', + 43 => '绿', 44 => '绿', 45 => '红', 46 => '红', 47 => '蓝', 48 => '蓝', + 49 => '绿' +]; + +// 生肖映射表 +$animalMap = [ + 1 => '马', 2 => '蛇', 3 => '龙', 4 => '兔', 5 => '虎', 6 => '牛', + 7 => '鼠', 8 => '猪', 9 => '狗', 10 => '鸡', 11 => '猴', 12 => '羊', + 13 => '马', 14 => '蛇', 15 => '龙', 16 => '兔', 17 => '虎', 18 => '牛', + 19 => '鼠', 20 => '猪', 21 => '狗', 22 => '鸡', 23 => '猴', 24 => '羊', + 25 => '马', 26 => '蛇', 27 => '龙', 28 => '兔', 29 => '虎', 30 => '牛', + 31 => '鼠', 32 => '猪', 33 => '狗', 34 => '鸡', 35 => '猴', 36 => '羊', + 37 => '马', 38 => '蛇', 39 => '龙', 40 => '兔', 41 => '虎', 42 => '牛', + 43 => '鼠', 44 => '猪', 45 => '狗', 46 => '鸡', 47 => '猴', 48 => '羊', + 49 => '马' +]; + +/** + * 获取数字所在的区间 (1-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-49) + */ +function getZone($num) { + if ($num >= 1 && $num <= 10) return 1; + if ($num >= 11 && $num <= 20) return 2; + if ($num >= 21 && $num <= 30) return 3; + if ($num >= 31 && $num <= 40) return 4; + if ($num >= 41 && $num <= 49) return 5; + return 0; +} + +/** + * 计算特码到最近正码的距离 + */ +function getMinDistance($sortedNums, $num7) { + $minDist = 49; + foreach ($sortedNums as $num) { + $dist = abs($num7 - $num); + if ($dist < $minDist) { + $minDist = $dist; + } + } + return $minDist; +} + +// 解析SQL文件中的数据 +$sqlFile = 'C:\Users\91611\Desktop\fa_history.sql'; +$content = file_get_contents($sqlFile); + +// 提取INSERT语句中的数据 +$pattern = '/INSERT INTO `fa_history` VALUES \((\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), \'([^\']+)\'\);/'; +preg_match_all($pattern, $content, $matches); + +$data = []; +for ($i = 0; $i < count($matches[0]); $i++) { + $data[] = [ + 'expect' => (int)$matches[1][$i], + 'num1' => (int)$matches[2][$i], + 'num2' => (int)$matches[3][$i], + 'num3' => (int)$matches[4][$i], + 'num4' => (int)$matches[5][$i], + 'num5' => (int)$matches[6][$i], + 'num6' => (int)$matches[7][$i], + 'num7' => (int)$matches[8][$i], + 'openTime' => $matches[9][$i] + ]; +} + +$total = count($data); +echo "==================== 正码与特码关联规律统计分析 ====================\n"; +echo "数据总量: {$total} 期 (从 {$data[0]['expect']} 到 {$data[$total-1]['expect']})\n\n"; + +// ==================== 1. 正码平均值与特码差值分布 ==================== +echo "==================== 1. 正码平均值与特码差值分布 ====================\n"; + +$diffCounts = []; +$inRange5 = 0; + +foreach ($data as $row) { + $avg = ($row['num1'] + $row['num2'] + $row['num3'] + $row['num4'] + $row['num5'] + $row['num6']) / 6; + $diff = round($row['num7'] - $avg); // 四舍五入 + + $diffKey = $diff; + if (!isset($diffCounts[$diffKey])) { + $diffCounts[$diffKey] = 0; + } + $diffCounts[$diffKey]++; + + if ($diff >= -5 && $diff <= 5) { + $inRange5++; + } +} + +// 按差值排序 +ksort($diffCounts); + +echo "差值分布统计:\n"; +foreach ($diffCounts as $diff => $count) { + $pct = round($count / $total * 100, 2); + echo " 差值 {$diff}: {$count} 次 ({$pct}%)\n"; +} + +echo "\n差值在 [-5, +5] 范围内的概率: " . round($inRange5 / $total * 100, 2) . "% ($inRange5/$total)\n"; + +// 找出高频差值区间 (>5%) +echo "\n高频差值区间 (>5%):\n"; +foreach ($diffCounts as $diff => $count) { + $pct = round($count / $total * 100, 2); + if ($pct > 5) { + echo " 差值 {$diff}: {$pct}%\n"; + } +} + +// ==================== 2. 特码是否在正码范围内 ==================== +echo "\n==================== 2. 特码是否在正码范围内 ====================\n"; + +$inRange = 0; +$outRange = 0; + +foreach ($data as $row) { + $nums = [$row['num1'], $row['num2'], $row['num3'], $row['num4'], $row['num5'], $row['num6']]; + $min = min($nums); + $max = max($nums); + + if ($row['num7'] >= $min && $row['num7'] <= $max) { + $inRange++; + } else { + $outRange++; + } +} + +echo "特码在正码范围内 [min(num1-6), max(num1-6)]:\n"; +echo " 是: {$inRange} 次 (" . round($inRange / $total * 100, 2) . "%)\n"; +echo " 否: {$outRange} 次 (" . round($outRange / $total * 100, 2) . "%)\n"; + +// ==================== 3. 特码与最近正码的距离分布 ==================== +echo "\n==================== 3. 特码与最近正码的距离分布 ====================\n"; + +$distCounts = []; +$equalCount = 0; // 特码等于某正码 + +foreach ($data as $row) { + $nums = [$row['num1'], $row['num2'], $row['num3'], $row['num4'], $row['num5'], $row['num6']]; + sort($nums); + + $minDist = getMinDistance($nums, $row['num7']); + + if (!isset($distCounts[$minDist])) { + $distCounts[$minDist] = 0; + } + $distCounts[$minDist]++; + + if ($minDist == 0) { + $equalCount++; + } +} + +ksort($distCounts); + +echo "距离分布统计:\n"; +foreach ($distCounts as $dist => $count) { + $pct = round($count / $total * 100, 2); + echo " 距离 {$dist}: {$count} 次 ({$pct}%)\n"; +} + +echo "\n特码等于某正码 (距离=0) 的概率: " . round($equalCount / $total * 100, 2) . "% ($equalCount/$total)\n"; + +// 距离<=5的概率 +$distLE5 = 0; +for ($i = 0; $i <= 5; $i++) { + if (isset($distCounts[$i])) { + $distLE5 += $distCounts[$i]; + } +} +echo "距离 <= 5 的概率: " . round($distLE5 / $total * 100, 2) . "% ($distLE5/$total)\n"; + +// ==================== 4. 和值尾数关系 ==================== +echo "\n==================== 4. 和值尾数关系 ====================\n"; + +$sameTail = 0; +$tailDiffCounts = []; + +foreach ($data as $row) { + $sum = $row['num1'] + $row['num2'] + $row['num3'] + $row['num4'] + $row['num5'] + $row['num6']; + $sumTail = $sum % 10; + $num7Tail = $row['num7'] % 10; + + $tailDiff = abs($sumTail - $num7Tail); + + if (!isset($tailDiffCounts[$tailDiff])) { + $tailDiffCounts[$tailDiff] = 0; + } + $tailDiffCounts[$tailDiff]++; + + if ($sumTail == $num7Tail) { + $sameTail++; + } +} + +ksort($tailDiffCounts); + +echo "和值尾数与特码尾数同尾概率: " . round($sameTail / $total * 100, 2) . "% ($sameTail/$total)\n"; +echo "\n尾数差值分布:\n"; +foreach ($tailDiffCounts as $diff => $count) { + $pct = round($count / $total * 100, 2); + echo " 尾数差 {$diff}: {$count} 次 ({$pct}%)\n"; +} + +// 尾数差 <= 3 的概率 +$tailDiffLE3 = 0; +for ($i = 0; $i <= 3; $i++) { + if (isset($tailDiffCounts[$i])) { + $tailDiffLE3 += $tailDiffCounts[$i]; + } +} +echo "\n尾数差 <= 3 的概率: " . round($tailDiffLE3 / $total * 100, 2) . "% ($tailDiffLE3/$total)\n"; + +// ==================== 5. 区间覆盖分析 ==================== +echo "\n==================== 5. 区间覆盖分析 ====================\n"; + +$zoneCoveredCounts = [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0]; // 覆盖0-5个区间 +$zone7Covered = 0; // 特码所在区间被正码覆盖 + +foreach ($data as $row) { + $nums = [$row['num1'], $row['num2'], $row['num3'], $row['num4'], $row['num5'], $row['num6']]; + $zones = []; + foreach ($nums as $num) { + $zone = getZone($num); + $zones[$zone] = true; + } + + $coverCount = count($zones); + $zoneCoveredCounts[$coverCount]++; + + $zone7 = getZone($row['num7']); + if (isset($zones[$zone7])) { + $zone7Covered++; + } +} + +echo "正码覆盖区间数量分布:\n"; +for ($i = 0; $i <= 5; $i++) { + $count = $zoneCoveredCounts[$i]; + $pct = round($count / $total * 100, 2); + echo " 覆盖 {$i} 个区间: {$count} 次 ({$pct}%)\n"; +} + +echo "\n特码所在区间被正码覆盖的概率: " . round($zone7Covered / $total * 100, 2) . "% ($zone7Covered/$total)\n"; + +// ==================== 6. 波色/生肖关联 ==================== +echo "\n==================== 6. 波色/生肖关联 ====================\n"; + +$color7InNums = 0; // 特码波色在正码中出现过 +$animal7InNums = 0; // 特码生肖在正码中出现过 + +$colorMatchCounts = []; // 正码中某波色数量与特码波色匹配情况 +$color7Counts = ['红' => 0, '蓝' => 0, '绿' => 0]; // 特码波色分布 + +foreach ($data as $row) { + $nums = [$row['num1'], $row['num2'], $row['num3'], $row['num4'], $row['num5'], $row['num6']]; + + $numColors = []; + $numAnimals = []; + $colorCounts = ['红' => 0, '蓝' => 0, '绿' => 0]; + + foreach ($nums as $num) { + $color = $colorMap[$num]; + $animal = $animalMap[$num]; + $numColors[$color] = true; + $numAnimals[$animal] = true; + $colorCounts[$color]++; + } + + $color7 = $colorMap[$row['num7']]; + $animal7 = $animalMap[$row['num7']]; + + $color7Counts[$color7]++; + + // 特码波色是否在正码中出现过 + if (isset($numColors[$color7])) { + $color7InNums++; + } + + // 特码生肖是否在正码中出现过 + if (isset($numAnimals[$animal7])) { + $animal7InNums++; + } + + // 正码中某波色数量与特码波色 + $key = $colorCounts[$color7] . '_' . $color7; + if (!isset($colorMatchCounts[$key])) { + $colorMatchCounts[$key] = 0; + } + $colorMatchCounts[$key]++; +} + +echo "特码波色分布:\n"; +foreach ($color7Counts as $color => $count) { + $pct = round($count / $total * 100, 2); + echo " {$color}: {$count} 次 ({$pct}%)\n"; +} + +echo "\n特码波色在正码中出现的概率: " . round($color7InNums / $total * 100, 2) . "% ($color7InNums/$total)\n"; +echo "特码生肖在正码中出现的概率: " . round($animal7InNums / $total * 100, 2) . "% ($animal7InNums/$total)\n"; + +echo "\n正码中特码同波色数量分布:\n"; +ksort($colorMatchCounts); +foreach ($colorMatchCounts as $key => $count) { + $pct = round($count / $total * 100, 2); + echo " {$key}: {$count} 次 ({$pct}%)\n"; +} + +// ==================== 总结: 高命中率规律 ==================== +echo "\n==================== 总结: 可能达到40%命中率以上的规律 ====================\n"; + +$highHitRules = []; + +// 检查各规律 +if ($inRange5 / $total >= 0.4) { + $highHitRules[] = "差值在[-5,+5]: " . round($inRange5 / $total * 100, 2) . "%"; +} + +if ($distLE5 / $total >= 0.4) { + $highHitRules[] = "距离<=5: " . round($distLE5 / $total * 100, 2) . "%"; +} + +if ($zone7Covered / $total >= 0.4) { + $highHitRules[] = "特码区间被正码覆盖: " . round($zone7Covered / $total * 100, 2) . "%"; +} + +if ($color7InNums / $total >= 0.4) { + $highHitRules[] = "特码波色在正码中出现: " . round($color7InNums / $total * 100, 2) . "%"; +} + +if ($animal7InNums / $total >= 0.4) { + $highHitRules[] = "特码生肖在正码中出现: " . round($animal7InNums / $total * 100, 2) . "%"; +} + +if ($tailDiffLE3 / $total >= 0.4) { + $highHitRules[] = "尾数差<=3: " . round($tailDiffLE3 / $total * 100, 2) . "%"; +} + +if (count($highHitRules) > 0) { + foreach ($highHitRules as $rule) { + echo "- {$rule}\n"; + } +} else { + echo "没有发现明显超过40%命中率的规律,以下是接近40%的规律:\n"; + + $allRules = [ + "差值在[-5,+5]" => $inRange5 / $total, + "距离<=5" => $distLE5 / $total, + "距离<=10" => 0, + "特码区间被正码覆盖" => $zone7Covered / $total, + "特码波色在正码中出现" => $color7InNums / $total, + "特码生肖在正码中出现" => $animal7InNums / $total, + "尾数差<=3" => $tailDiffLE3 / $total, + ]; + + // 计算距离<=10 + $distLE10 = 0; + for ($i = 0; $i <= 10; $i++) { + if (isset($distCounts[$i])) { + $distLE10 += $distCounts[$i]; + } + } + $allRules["距离<=10"] = $distLE10 / $total; + + arsort($allRules); + foreach ($allRules as $rule => $rate) { + echo "- {$rule}: " . round($rate * 100, 2) . "%\n"; + } +} + +echo "\n==================== 分析完成 ====================\n"; \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/analysis_history.py b/analysis_history.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4c8de4c --- /dev/null +++ b/analysis_history.py @@ -0,0 +1,286 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +# -*- coding: utf-8 -*- +""" +正码与特码关联规律统计分析脚本 +""" + +import re +from collections import defaultdict + +# 波色映射表 +color_map = { + 1: '红', 2: '红', 3: '蓝', 4: '蓝', 5: '绿', 6: '绿', + 7: '红', 8: '红', 9: '蓝', 10: '蓝', 11: '绿', 12: '红', + 13: '红', 14: '蓝', 15: '蓝', 16: '绿', 17: '绿', 18: '红', + 19: '红', 20: '蓝', 21: '绿', 22: '绿', 23: '红', 24: '红', + 25: '蓝', 26: '蓝', 27: '绿', 28: '绿', 29: '红', 30: '红', + 31: '蓝', 32: '绿', 33: '绿', 34: '红', 35: '红', 36: '蓝', + 37: '蓝', 38: '绿', 39: '绿', 40: '红', 41: '蓝', 42: '蓝', + 43: '绿', 44: '绿', 45: '红', 46: '红', 47: '蓝', 48: '蓝', + 49: '绿' +} + +# 生肖映射表 +animal_map = { + 1: '马', 2: '蛇', 3: '龙', 4: '兔', 5: '虎', 6: '牛', + 7: '鼠', 8: '猪', 9: '狗', 10: '鸡', 11: '猴', 12: '羊', + 13: '马', 14: '蛇', 15: '龙', 16: '兔', 17: '虎', 18: '牛', + 19: '鼠', 20: '猪', 21: '狗', 22: '鸡', 23: '猴', 24: '羊', + 25: '马', 26: '蛇', 27: '龙', 28: '兔', 29: '虎', 30: '牛', + 31: '鼠', 32: '猪', 33: '狗', 34: '鸡', 35: '猴', 36: '羊', + 37: '马', 38: '蛇', 39: '龙', 40: '兔', 41: '虎', 42: '牛', + 43: '鼠', 44: '猪', 45: '狗', 46: '鸡', 47: '猴', 48: '羊', + 49: '马' +} + +def get_zone(num): + if 1 <= num <= 10: return 1 + elif 11 <= num <= 20: return 2 + elif 21 <= num <= 30: return 3 + elif 31 <= num <= 40: return 4 + elif 41 <= num <= 49: return 5 + return 0 + +def get_min_distance(nums, num7): + return min(abs(num7 - num) for num in nums) + +# 解析SQL文件 +sql_file = r'C:\Users\91611\Desktop\fa_history.sql' +with open(sql_file, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f: + content = f.read() + +pattern = r"INSERT INTO `fa_history` VALUES \((\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), (\d+), '([^']+)'\);" +matches = re.findall(pattern, content) + +data = [] +for match in matches: + data.append({ + 'expect': int(match[0]), + 'num1': int(match[1]), 'num2': int(match[2]), 'num3': int(match[3]), + 'num4': int(match[4]), 'num5': int(match[5]), 'num6': int(match[6]), + 'num7': int(match[7]), 'openTime': match[8] + }) + +total = len(data) + +# 输出到文件 +output_file = r'D:\code\php\amlhc\analysis_result.txt' +with open(output_file, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f: + f.write("==================== 正码与特码关联规律统计分析 ====================\n") + f.write(f"数据总量: {total} 期 (从 {data[0]['expect']} 到 {data[-1]['expect']})\n\n") + + # ==================== 1. 正码平均值与特码差值分布 ==================== + f.write("==================== 1. 正码平均值与特码差值分布 ====================\n") + + diff_counts = defaultdict(int) + in_range_5 = 0 + + for row in data: + avg = (row['num1'] + row['num2'] + row['num3'] + row['num4'] + row['num5'] + row['num6']) / 6 + diff = round(row['num7'] - avg) + diff_counts[diff] += 1 + if -5 <= diff <= 5: + in_range_5 += 1 + + f.write("差值分布统计:\n") + for diff in sorted(diff_counts.keys()): + count = diff_counts[diff] + pct = round(count / total * 100, 2) + f.write(f" 差值 {diff}: {count} 次 ({pct}%)\n") + + f.write(f"\n差值在 [-5, +5] 范围内的概率: {round(in_range_5 / total * 100, 2)}% ({in_range_5}/{total})\n") + + in_range_10 = sum(diff_counts[d] for d in diff_counts if -10 <= d <= 10) + f.write(f"差值在 [-10, +10] 范围内的概率: {round(in_range_10 / total * 100, 2)}% ({in_range_10}/{total})\n") + + # ==================== 2. 特码是否在正码范围内 ==================== + f.write("\n==================== 2. 特码是否在正码范围内 ====================\n") + + in_range = 0 + for row in data: + nums = [row['num1'], row['num2'], row['num3'], row['num4'], row['num5'], row['num6']] + if min(nums) <= row['num7'] <= max(nums): + in_range += 1 + + f.write("特码在正码范围内 [min(num1-6), max(num1-6)]:\n") + f.write(f" 是: {in_range} 次 ({round(in_range / total * 100, 2)}%)\n") + f.write(f" 否: {total - in_range} 次 ({round((total - in_range) / total * 100, 2)}%)\n") + + # ==================== 3. 特码与最近正码的距离分布 ==================== + f.write("\n==================== 3. 特码与最近正码的距离分布 ====================\n") + + dist_counts = defaultdict(int) + for row in data: + nums = [row['num1'], row['num2'], row['num3'], row['num4'], row['num5'], row['num6']] + min_dist = get_min_distance(nums, row['num7']) + dist_counts[min_dist] += 1 + + f.write("距离分布统计:\n") + for dist in sorted(dist_counts.keys()): + count = dist_counts[dist] + pct = round(count / total * 100, 2) + f.write(f" 距离 {dist}: {count} 次 ({pct}%)\n") + + equal_count = dist_counts.get(0, 0) + dist_le5 = sum(dist_counts[i] for i in range(0, 6) if i in dist_counts) + dist_le10 = sum(dist_counts[i] for i in range(0, 11) if i in dist_counts) + dist_le15 = sum(dist_counts[i] for i in range(0, 16) if i in dist_counts) + + f.write(f"\n特码等于某正码 (距离=0) 的概率: {round(equal_count / total * 100, 2)}% ({equal_count}/{total})\n") + f.write(f"距离 <= 5 的概率: {round(dist_le5 / total * 100, 2)}% ({dist_le5}/{total})\n") + f.write(f"距离 <= 10 的概率: {round(dist_le10 / total * 100, 2)}% ({dist_le10}/{total})\n") + f.write(f"距离 <= 15 的概率: {round(dist_le15 / total * 100, 2)}% ({dist_le15}/{total})\n") + + # ==================== 4. 和值尾数关系 ==================== + f.write("\n==================== 4. 和值尾数关系 ====================\n") + + same_tail = 0 + tail_diff_counts = defaultdict(int) + + for row in data: + sum_val = row['num1'] + row['num2'] + row['num3'] + row['num4'] + row['num5'] + row['num6'] + sum_tail = sum_val % 10 + num7_tail = row['num7'] % 10 + tail_diff = abs(sum_tail - num7_tail) + tail_diff_counts[tail_diff] += 1 + if sum_tail == num7_tail: + same_tail += 1 + + f.write(f"和值尾数与特码尾数同尾概率: {round(same_tail / total * 100, 2)}% ({same_tail}/{total})\n") + f.write("\n尾数差值分布:\n") + for diff in sorted(tail_diff_counts.keys()): + count = tail_diff_counts[diff] + pct = round(count / total * 100, 2) + f.write(f" 尾数差 {diff}: {count} 次 ({pct}%)\n") + + tail_diff_le3 = sum(tail_diff_counts[i] for i in range(0, 4) if i in tail_diff_counts) + f.write(f"\n尾数差 <= 3 的概率: {round(tail_diff_le3 / total * 100, 2)}% ({tail_diff_le3}/{total})\n") + + # ==================== 5. 区间覆盖分析 ==================== + f.write("\n==================== 5. 区间覆盖分析 ====================\n") + + zone_covered_counts = defaultdict(int) + zone7_covered = 0 + + for row in data: + nums = [row['num1'], row['num2'], row['num3'], row['num4'], row['num5'], row['num6']] + zones = set(get_zone(num) for num in nums) + zone_covered_counts[len(zones)] += 1 + zone7 = get_zone(row['num7']) + if zone7 in zones: + zone7_covered += 1 + + f.write("正码覆盖区间数量分布:\n") + for i in range(1, 6): + count = zone_covered_counts.get(i, 0) + pct = round(count / total * 100, 2) + f.write(f" 覆盖 {i} 个区间: {count} 次 ({pct}%)\n") + + f.write(f"\n特码所在区间被正码覆盖的概率: {round(zone7_covered / total * 100, 2)}% ({zone7_covered}/{total})\n") + + # ==================== 6. 波色/生肖关联 ==================== + f.write("\n==================== 6. 波色/生肖关联 ====================\n") + + color7_in_nums = 0 + animal7_in_nums = 0 + color_match_counts = defaultdict(int) + color7_counts = defaultdict(int) + + for row in data: + nums = [row['num1'], row['num2'], row['num3'], row['num4'], row['num5'], row['num6']] + num_colors = set() + num_animals = set() + color_counts = defaultdict(int) + + for num in nums: + color = color_map[num] + animal = animal_map[num] + num_colors.add(color) + num_animals.add(animal) + color_counts[color] += 1 + + color7 = color_map[row['num7']] + animal7 = animal_map[row['num7']] + color7_counts[color7] += 1 + + if color7 in num_colors: + color7_in_nums += 1 + if animal7 in num_animals: + animal7_in_nums += 1 + + key = f"{color_counts[color7]}_{color7}" + color_match_counts[key] += 1 + + f.write("特码波色分布:\n") + for color in ['红', '蓝', '绿']: + count = color7_counts[color] + pct = round(count / total * 100, 2) + f.write(f" {color}: {count} 次 ({pct}%)\n") + + f.write(f"\n特码波色在正码中出现的概率: {round(color7_in_nums / total * 100, 2)}% ({color7_in_nums}/{total})\n") + f.write(f"特码生肖在正码中出现的概率: {round(animal7_in_nums / total * 100, 2)}% ({animal7_in_nums}/{total})\n") + + f.write("\n正码中特码同波色数量分布:\n") + for key in sorted(color_match_counts.keys()): + count = color_match_counts[key] + pct = round(count / total * 100, 2) + f.write(f" {key}: {count} 次 ({pct}%)\n") + + # ==================== 总结 ==================== + f.write("\n==================== 总结: 达到40%命中率以上的规律 ====================\n") + + all_rules = { + "距离<=15": dist_le15 / total, + "距离<=10": dist_le10 / total, + "特码波色在正码中出现": color7_in_nums / total, + "距离<=5": dist_le5 / total, + "特码区间被正码覆盖": zone7_covered / total, + "特码在正码范围内": in_range / total, + "尾数差<=3": tail_diff_le3 / total, + "差值在[-10,+10]": in_range_10 / total, + "差值在[-5,+5]": in_range_5 / total, + "同尾": same_tail / total, + "特码生肖在正码中出现": animal7_in_nums / total, + } + + sorted_rules = sorted(all_rules.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) + + f.write("规律按命中率排序:\n") + for rule, rate in sorted_rules: + status = "[达标]" if rate >= 0.4 else "" + f.write(f" - {rule}: {round(rate * 100, 2)}% {status}\n") + + f.write("\n==================== 关键发现 ====================\n") + f.write(f""" +1. 【特码波色重复规律】命中率最高 90.67% + - 特码波色在正码中出现的概率约为 90.67% + - 如果正码中有红色号码,特码有90%概率是红色波色 + +2. 【近距离规律】命中率很高 94.13% + - 特码距离最近正码<=10的概率约为 94.13% + - 特码往往不会离正码太远,基本在10个数字以内 + +3. 【区间覆盖规律】命中率较高 74.13% + - 特码所在区间被正码覆盖的概率约为 74.13% + - 将1-49分为5区间,特码有74%概率落在正码覆盖的区间 + +4. 【正码范围规律】命中率中等 70.67% + - 特码在正码[min, max]范围内的概率约为 70.67% + - 特码有70%概率落在正码的最小值和最大值之间 + +5. 【尾数差规律】命中率54.13% + - 和值尾数与特码尾数差<=3的概率约为 54.13% + - 特码尾数与正码和值尾数相差不超过3 + +6. 【生肖重复规律】命中率较低 36.27% + - 特码生肖在正码中出现的概率约为 36.27% + - 生肖关联性不如波色明显 + +7. 【特码等于正码】命中率极低 0% + - 特码等于某正码的概率为 0% + - 特码与正码完全不重复(六合彩规则) +""") + + f.write("\n==================== 分析完成 ====================\n") + +print(f"分析完成,结果已保存到: {output_file}") \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/analysis_result.txt b/analysis_result.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fcd748c --- /dev/null +++ b/analysis_result.txt @@ -0,0 +1,204 @@ +==================== 正码与特码关联规律统计分析 ==================== +数据总量: 375 期 (从 2025111 到 2026120) + +==================== 1. 正码平均值与特码差值分布 ==================== +差值分布统计: + 差值 -33: 1 次 (0.27%) + 差值 -32: 2 次 (0.53%) + 差值 -31: 1 次 (0.27%) + 差值 -30: 3 次 (0.8%) + 差值 -29: 3 次 (0.8%) + 差值 -28: 1 次 (0.27%) + 差值 -27: 3 次 (0.8%) + 差值 -26: 2 次 (0.53%) + 差值 -25: 4 次 (1.07%) + 差值 -24: 5 次 (1.33%) + 差值 -23: 3 次 (0.8%) + 差值 -22: 4 次 (1.07%) + 差值 -21: 4 次 (1.07%) + 差值 -20: 8 次 (2.13%) + 差值 -19: 9 次 (2.4%) + 差值 -18: 5 次 (1.33%) + 差值 -17: 10 次 (2.67%) + 差值 -16: 9 次 (2.4%) + 差值 -15: 3 次 (0.8%) + 差值 -14: 13 次 (3.47%) + 差值 -13: 8 次 (2.13%) + 差值 -12: 9 次 (2.4%) + 差值 -11: 8 次 (2.13%) + 差值 -10: 9 次 (2.4%) + 差值 -9: 4 次 (1.07%) + 差值 -8: 13 次 (3.47%) + 差值 -7: 9 次 (2.4%) + 差值 -6: 10 次 (2.67%) + 差值 -5: 5 次 (1.33%) + 差值 -4: 5 次 (1.33%) + 差值 -3: 2 次 (0.53%) + 差值 -2: 8 次 (2.13%) + 差值 -1: 4 次 (1.07%) + 差值 0: 12 次 (3.2%) + 差值 1: 6 次 (1.6%) + 差值 2: 11 次 (2.93%) + 差值 3: 5 次 (1.33%) + 差值 4: 11 次 (2.93%) + 差值 5: 3 次 (0.8%) + 差值 6: 7 次 (1.87%) + 差值 7: 8 次 (2.13%) + 差值 8: 8 次 (2.13%) + 差值 9: 4 次 (1.07%) + 差值 10: 6 次 (1.6%) + 差值 11: 5 次 (1.33%) + 差值 12: 7 次 (1.87%) + 差值 13: 4 次 (1.07%) + 差值 14: 9 次 (2.4%) + 差值 15: 4 次 (1.07%) + 差值 16: 6 次 (1.6%) + 差值 17: 6 次 (1.6%) + 差值 18: 18 次 (4.8%) + 差值 19: 5 次 (1.33%) + 差值 20: 6 次 (1.6%) + 差值 21: 11 次 (2.93%) + 差值 22: 8 次 (2.13%) + 差值 23: 4 次 (1.07%) + 差值 24: 2 次 (0.53%) + 差值 25: 1 次 (0.27%) + 差值 26: 2 次 (0.53%) + 差值 27: 3 次 (0.8%) + 差值 28: 2 次 (0.53%) + 差值 29: 1 次 (0.27%) + 差值 31: 2 次 (0.53%) + 差值 32: 1 次 (0.27%) + +差值在 [-5, +5] 范围内的概率: 19.2% (72/375) +差值在 [-10, +10] 范围内的概率: 40.0% (150/375) + +==================== 2. 特码是否在正码范围内 ==================== +特码在正码范围内 [min(num1-6), max(num1-6)]: + 是: 265 次 (70.67%) + 否: 110 次 (29.33%) + +==================== 3. 特码与最近正码的距离分布 ==================== +距离分布统计: + 距离 1: 103 次 (27.47%) + 距离 2: 62 次 (16.53%) + 距离 3: 56 次 (14.93%) + 距离 4: 37 次 (9.87%) + 距离 5: 38 次 (10.13%) + 距离 6: 20 次 (5.33%) + 距离 7: 12 次 (3.2%) + 距离 8: 12 次 (3.2%) + 距离 9: 7 次 (1.87%) + 距离 10: 6 次 (1.6%) + 距离 11: 6 次 (1.6%) + 距离 12: 5 次 (1.33%) + 距离 13: 4 次 (1.07%) + 距离 14: 4 次 (1.07%) + 距离 15: 1 次 (0.27%) + 距离 20: 1 次 (0.27%) + 距离 21: 1 次 (0.27%) + +特码等于某正码 (距离=0) 的概率: 0.0% (0/375) +距离 <= 5 的概率: 78.93% (296/375) +距离 <= 10 的概率: 94.13% (353/375) +距离 <= 15 的概率: 99.47% (373/375) + +==================== 4. 和值尾数关系 ==================== +和值尾数与特码尾数同尾概率: 8.27% (31/375) + +尾数差值分布: + 尾数差 0: 31 次 (8.27%) + 尾数差 1: 70 次 (18.67%) + 尾数差 2: 53 次 (14.13%) + 尾数差 3: 49 次 (13.07%) + 尾数差 4: 43 次 (11.47%) + 尾数差 5: 53 次 (14.13%) + 尾数差 6: 42 次 (11.2%) + 尾数差 7: 20 次 (5.33%) + 尾数差 8: 10 次 (2.67%) + 尾数差 9: 4 次 (1.07%) + +尾数差 <= 3 的概率: 54.13% (203/375) + +==================== 5. 区间覆盖分析 ==================== +正码覆盖区间数量分布: + 覆盖 1 个区间: 0 次 (0.0%) + 覆盖 2 个区间: 9 次 (2.4%) + 覆盖 3 个区间: 103 次 (27.47%) + 覆盖 4 个区间: 194 次 (51.73%) + 覆盖 5 个区间: 69 次 (18.4%) + +特码所在区间被正码覆盖的概率: 74.13% (278/375) + +==================== 6. 波色/生肖关联 ==================== +特码波色分布: + 红: 131 次 (34.93%) + 蓝: 122 次 (32.53%) + 绿: 122 次 (32.53%) + +特码波色在正码中出现的概率: 90.67% (340/375) +特码生肖在正码中出现的概率: 36.27% (136/375) + +正码中特码同波色数量分布: + 0_红: 7 次 (1.87%) + 0_绿: 11 次 (2.93%) + 0_蓝: 17 次 (4.53%) + 1_红: 35 次 (9.33%) + 1_绿: 42 次 (11.2%) + 1_蓝: 37 次 (9.87%) + 2_红: 53 次 (14.13%) + 2_绿: 46 次 (12.27%) + 2_蓝: 38 次 (10.13%) + 3_红: 30 次 (8.0%) + 3_绿: 17 次 (4.53%) + 3_蓝: 26 次 (6.93%) + 4_红: 3 次 (0.8%) + 4_绿: 5 次 (1.33%) + 4_蓝: 4 次 (1.07%) + 5_红: 3 次 (0.8%) + 5_绿: 1 次 (0.27%) + +==================== 总结: 达到40%命中率以上的规律 ==================== +规律按命中率排序: + - 距离<=15: 99.47% [达标] + - 距离<=10: 94.13% [达标] + - 特码波色在正码中出现: 90.67% [达标] + - 距离<=5: 78.93% [达标] + - 特码区间被正码覆盖: 74.13% [达标] + - 特码在正码范围内: 70.67% [达标] + - 尾数差<=3: 54.13% [达标] + - 差值在[-10,+10]: 40.0% [达标] + - 特码生肖在正码中出现: 36.27% + - 差值在[-5,+5]: 19.2% + - 同尾: 8.27% + +==================== 关键发现 ==================== + +1. 【特码波色重复规律】命中率最高 90.67% + - 特码波色在正码中出现的概率约为 90.67% + - 如果正码中有红色号码,特码有90%概率是红色波色 + +2. 【近距离规律】命中率很高 94.13% + - 特码距离最近正码<=10的概率约为 94.13% + - 特码往往不会离正码太远,基本在10个数字以内 + +3. 【区间覆盖规律】命中率较高 74.13% + - 特码所在区间被正码覆盖的概率约为 74.13% + - 将1-49分为5区间,特码有74%概率落在正码覆盖的区间 + +4. 【正码范围规律】命中率中等 70.67% + - 特码在正码[min, max]范围内的概率约为 70.67% + - 特码有70%概率落在正码的最小值和最大值之间 + +5. 【尾数差规律】命中率54.13% + - 和值尾数与特码尾数差<=3的概率约为 54.13% + - 特码尾数与正码和值尾数相差不超过3 + +6. 【生肖重复规律】命中率较低 36.27% + - 特码生肖在正码中出现的概率约为 36.27% + - 生肖关联性不如波色明显 + +7. 【特码等于正码】命中率极低 0% + - 特码等于某正码的概率为 0% + - 特码与正码完全不重复(六合彩规则) + +==================== 分析完成 ==================== diff --git a/application/admin/controller/History.php b/application/admin/controller/History.php index 8044dec..3d9fd2d 100644 --- a/application/admin/controller/History.php +++ b/application/admin/controller/History.php @@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ class History extends Backend * 无需额外权限检查的方法(但仍在 admin 模块内,需要 admin 登录) * @var array */ - protected $noNeedRight = ['missingNum', 'trendData', 'hotColdNumbers', 'colorWaveAnalysis', 'zodiacAnalysis', 'oddEvenAnalysis', 'bigSmallAnalysis', 'specialTrend', 'consecutiveNumbers', 'tailNumbers', 'dashboard', 'specialHeatmap', 'specialHotColdAction', 'zoneTransition', 'colorWaveTransition', 'zoneToColorTransition', 'zodiacTransition', 'tailNumberTransition', 'headNumberTransition', 'predict', 'predictV2', 'predictV3', 'optimizeWeights']; + protected $noNeedRight = ['missingNum', 'trendData', 'hotColdNumbers', 'colorWaveAnalysis', 'zodiacAnalysis', 'oddEvenAnalysis', 'bigSmallAnalysis', 'specialTrend', 'consecutiveNumbers', 'tailNumbers', 'dashboard', 'specialHeatmap', 'specialHotColdAction', 'zoneTransition', 'colorWaveTransition', 'zoneToColorTransition', 'zodiacTransition', 'tailNumberTransition', 'headNumberTransition', 'predict', 'predictV2', 'predictV3', 'optimizeWeights', 'predictByNormalRelation']; public function _initialize() { @@ -535,5 +535,29 @@ class History extends Backend } } + /** + * 基于正码关联规律的特码预测 + * 核心规律: + * - 波色重复规律:90.67%特码波色与正码中某号码波色相同 + * - 距离规律:94.13%特码与最近正码距离<=10 + * - 区间覆盖规律:74.13%特码落在正码覆盖的区间 + * - 正码范围规律:70.67%特码在正码min-max之间 + */ + public function predictByNormalRelation() + { + if ($this->request->isAjax()) { + $periods = $this->request->get('periods', 100, 'intval'); + if ($periods < 30 || $periods > 500) { + $periods = 100; + } + $targetExpect = $this->request->get('target_expect', '', 'trim'); + $result = $this->model->getPredictionByNormalRelation($periods, $targetExpect); + if (isset($result['error'])) { + $this->error($result['error']); + } + $this->success('查询成功', null, $result); + } + } + } diff --git a/application/admin/model/History.php b/application/admin/model/History.php index 5ebc11d..1f29da2 100644 --- a/application/admin/model/History.php +++ b/application/admin/model/History.php @@ -4290,5 +4290,543 @@ class History extends Model ]; } + /** + * 基于正码关联规律的特码预测方法(修正版) + * 核心规律:上期正码 → 当期特码 + * - 覆盖区间规律:91.44% 当期特码在上期正码覆盖的区间内 + * - 正码±3距离:59.36% 当期特码与上期正码某号码距离≤3 + * - 双波色预测:69.52% 当期特码波色在上期正码前2种主导波色内 + * - 特码区间转移:77.54% 基于上期特码区间预测当期特码区间 + * - 平均值±10:41.98% 当期特码在上期正码平均值±10范围 + * - 尾数±2:50% 和值尾数与特码尾数差≤2 + * @param int $periods 统计期数(用于验证历史命中率) + * @param string $targetExpect 目标期号(可选,用于回测验证) + * @return array {predictions: [], analysis: {}, hit_info: {}, backtest: {}} + */ + public function getPredictionByNormalRelation($periods = 100, $targetExpect = '') + { + $num_model = new Num(); + $colorMap = $num_model->column('color', 'num'); + $animalMap = $num_model->column('animal', 'num'); + + // 区间划分:大号(31-49)、中号(11-30)、小号(1-10) + $getBigZone = function ($num) { + if ($num <= 10) return 'small'; + if ($num <= 30) return 'mid'; + return 'big'; + }; + + // 细区间划分:1-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-49 + $getFineZone = function ($num) { + if ($num <= 10) return 0; + if ($num <= 20) return 1; + if ($num <= 30) return 2; + if ($num <= 40) return 3; + return 4; + }; + + // 确定预测基准 + $actualResult = null; + $lastNormals = []; + $lastSpecial = 0; + $lastExpect = ''; + $cutoffTime = null; + + if ($targetExpect) { + $targetRow = $this->where('expect', $targetExpect)->find(); + if (!$targetRow) { + return ['predictions' => [], 'error' => '期号不存在', 'target_expect' => $targetExpect]; + } + $cutoffTime = $targetRow['openTime']; + $actualResult = [ + 'expect' => (string)$targetRow['expect'], + 'num7' => (int)$targetRow['num7'], + 'color' => $colorMap[$targetRow['num7']] ?? '', + 'animal' => $animalMap[$targetRow['num7']] ?? '', + 'bigZone' => $getBigZone($targetRow['num7']), + 'openTime' => $targetRow['openTime'] + ]; + // 获取上一期数据作为预测基准 + $prevRow = $this->where('openTime', '<', $cutoffTime)->order('openTime', 'desc')->limit(1)->find(); + if (!$prevRow) { + return ['predictions' => [], 'error' => '没有历史数据']; + } + for ($i = 1; $i <= 6; $i++) { + $lastNormals[] = (int)$prevRow['num' . $i]; + } + $lastSpecial = (int)$prevRow['num7']; + $lastExpect = (string)$prevRow['expect']; + } else { + // 使用最新一期作为预测基准 + $latest = $this->field('expect,num1,num2,num3,num4,num5,num6,num7,openTime') + ->order('openTime', 'desc')->limit(1)->find(); + if (!$latest) { + return ['predictions' => [], 'error' => '没有历史数据']; + } + for ($i = 1; $i <= 6; $i++) { + $lastNormals[] = (int)$latest['num' . $i]; + } + $lastSpecial = (int)$latest['num7']; + $lastExpect = (string)$latest['expect']; + } + + // 分析上期正码特征 + $normalMin = min($lastNormals); + $normalMax = max($lastNormals); + $normalAvg = round(array_sum($lastNormals) / 6, 2); + $normalSum = array_sum($lastNormals); + + // 统计上期正码波色分布(找出前2种主导波色) + $colorCounts = ['红' => 0, '蓝' => 0, '绿' => 0]; + foreach ($lastNormals as $n) { + $color = $colorMap[$n] ?? ''; + if (strpos($color, '红') !== false) $colorCounts['红']++; + elseif (strpos($color, '蓝') !== false) $colorCounts['蓝']++; + elseif (strpos($color, '绿') !== false) $colorCounts['绿']++; + } + // 按数量排序,取前2种 + $sortedColors = []; + foreach ($colorCounts as $c => $cnt) { + $sortedColors[] = ['color' => $c, 'count' => $cnt]; + } + usort($sortedColors, function ($a, $b) { return $b['count'] - $a['count']; }); + $top2Colors = [$sortedColors[0]['color'], $sortedColors[1]['color']]; + + // 获取上期正码覆盖的细区间 + $normalFineZones = []; + foreach ($lastNormals as $n) { + $zoneIdx = $getFineZone($n); + if (!in_array($zoneIdx, $normalFineZones)) { + $normalFineZones[] = $zoneIdx; + } + } + + // 获取上期正码覆盖的大区间 + $normalBigZones = []; + foreach ($lastNormals as $n) { + $bigZone = $getBigZone($n); + if (!in_array($bigZone, $normalBigZones)) { + $normalBigZones[] = $bigZone; + } + } + + // 上期特码所在大区间 + $lastSpecialBigZone = $getBigZone($lastSpecial); + + // 特码区间转移概率矩阵(基于历史分析) + $zoneTransMatrix = [ + 'big' => ['big' => 35.77, 'mid' => 37.96, 'small' => 26.28], + 'mid' => ['big' => 33.77, 'mid' => 43.51, 'small' => 22.73], + 'small' => ['big' => 42.17, 'mid' => 42.17, 'small' => 15.66] + ]; + + // 计算每个号码的预测评分 + $predictions = []; + for ($num = 1; $num <= 49; $num++) { + $numColor = $colorMap[$num] ?? ''; + $numBigZone = $getBigZone($num); + $numFineZone = $getFineZone($num); + + // 规律1:覆盖区间规律(91.44%命中)- 细区间覆盖 + $fineZoneCovered = in_array($numFineZone, $normalFineZones); + $zoneCoverScore = $fineZoneCovered ? 91 : 0; + + // 规律2:正码±3距离(59.36%命中) + $minDistance = 49; + foreach ($lastNormals as $n) { + $dist = abs($num - $n); + if ($dist < $minDistance) $minDistance = $dist; + } + $distScore = $minDistance <= 3 ? 59 : ($minDistance <= 5 ? 40 : 0); + + // 规律3:双波色预测(69.52%命中) + $colorInTop2 = false; + foreach ($top2Colors as $tc) { + if (strpos($numColor, $tc) !== false) { + $colorInTop2 = true; + break; + } + } + $colorScore = $colorInTop2 ? 69 : 0; + + // 规律4:特码区间转移(77.54%命中) + $transProb = $zoneTransMatrix[$lastSpecialBigZone][$numBigZone] ?? 0; + // 取该区间最高转移概率的2个区间 + $transProbs = $zoneTransMatrix[$lastSpecialBigZone]; + $sortedTrans = []; + foreach ($transProbs as $z => $p) { + $sortedTrans[] = ['zone' => $z, 'prob' => $p]; + } + usort($sortedTrans, function ($a, $b) { return $b['prob'] - $a['prob']; }); + $top2TransZones = [$sortedTrans[0]['zone'], $sortedTrans[1]['zone']]; + $transMatch = in_array($numBigZone, $top2TransZones); + $transScore = $transMatch ? 77 : 0; + + // 规律5:平均值±10(41.98%命中) + $avgDiff = abs($num - $normalAvg); + $avgScore = $avgDiff <= 10 ? 42 : 0; + + // 规律6:尾数±2(50%命中) + $numTail = $num % 10; + $sumTail = $normalSum % 10; + $tailDiff = abs($numTail - $sumTail); + $tailDiff = min($tailDiff, 10 - $tailDiff); + $tailScore = $tailDiff <= 2 ? 50 : ($tailDiff <= 3 ? 30 : 0); + + // 综合评分(加权求和) + $totalScore = $zoneCoverScore * 0.30 // 覆盖区间权重最高 + + $transScore * 0.25 // 特码区间转移 + + $colorScore * 0.20 // 双波色 + + $distScore * 0.12 // 距离 + + $avgScore * 0.08 // 平均值 + + $tailScore * 0.05; // 尾数 + + $predictions[] = [ + 'num' => $num, + 'score' => round($totalScore, 2), + 'color' => $numColor, + 'animal' => $animalMap[$num] ?? '', + 'big_zone' => $numBigZone, + 'fine_zone' => $numFineZone, + 'zone_covered' => $fineZoneCovered, + 'min_distance' => $minDistance, + 'color_in_top2' => $colorInTop2, + 'trans_match' => $transMatch, + 'trans_prob' => $transProb, + 'avg_diff' => round($avgDiff, 2), + 'tail_diff' => $tailDiff + ]; + } + + // 按评分降序排序 + usort($predictions, function ($a, $b) { + return $b['score'] - $a['score']; + }); + + // 返回Top15推荐号码 + $topPredictions = array_slice($predictions, 0, 15); + + // 分析信息 + $analysis = [ + 'last_expect' => $lastExpect, + 'last_normals' => $lastNormals, + 'last_special' => $lastSpecial, + 'last_special_zone' => $lastSpecialBigZone, + 'normal_min' => $normalMin, + 'normal_max' => $normalMax, + 'normal_avg' => $normalAvg, + 'normal_sum' => $normalSum, + 'top2_colors' => $top2Colors, + 'color_counts' => $colorCounts, + 'normal_fine_zones' => $normalFineZones, + 'normal_big_zones' => $normalBigZones, + 'zone_trans_matrix' => $zoneTransMatrix, + 'rules' => [ + ['name' => '覆盖区间', 'rate' => '91.44%', 'desc' => '当期特码在上期正码覆盖的细区间内'], + ['name' => '特码区间转移', 'rate' => '77.54%', 'desc' => '基于上期特码区间预测当期特码所在大区间'], + ['name' => '双波色预测', 'rate' => '69.52%', 'desc' => '当期特码波色在上期正码前2种主导波色内'], + ['name' => '正码±3距离', 'rate' => '59.36%', 'desc' => '当期特码与上期正码某号码距离≤3'], + ['name' => '尾数±2', 'rate' => '50%', 'desc' => '上期正码和值尾数与当期特码尾数差≤2'], + ['name' => '平均值±10', 'rate' => '41.98%', 'desc' => '当期特码在上期正码平均值±10范围'] + ], + 'predict_next_expect' => $lastExpect ? (string)(intval($lastExpect) + 1) : '' + ]; + + // 命中验证 + $hitInfo = null; + if ($actualResult) { + $hitRank = -1; + foreach ($topPredictions as $idx => $p) { + if ($p['num'] === $actualResult['num7']) { + $hitRank = $idx + 1; + break; + } + } + $fullRank = -1; + foreach ($predictions as $idx => $p) { + if ($p['num'] === $actualResult['num7']) { + $fullRank = $idx + 1; + break; + } + } + // 分析实际结果的规律命中情况 + $actualAnalysis = null; + foreach ($predictions as $p) { + if ($p['num'] === $actualResult['num7']) { + $actualAnalysis = $p; + break; + } + } + $hitInfo = [ + 'hit' => $hitRank > 0, + 'rank_in_top' => $hitRank, + 'rank_in_all' => $fullRank, + 'actual_num' => $actualResult['num7'], + 'actual_color' => $actualResult['color'], + 'actual_animal' => $actualResult['animal'], + 'actual_expect' => $actualResult['expect'], + 'actual_zone_covered' => $actualAnalysis ? $actualAnalysis['zone_covered'] : false, + 'actual_min_distance' => $actualAnalysis ? $actualAnalysis['min_distance'] : 99, + 'actual_color_in_top2' => $actualAnalysis ? $actualAnalysis['color_in_top2'] : false, + 'actual_trans_match' => $actualAnalysis ? $actualAnalysis['trans_match'] : false, + 'actual_tail_diff' => $actualAnalysis ? $actualAnalysis['tail_diff'] : 99, + 'actual_avg_diff' => $actualAnalysis ? $actualAnalysis['avg_diff'] : 99 + ]; + } + + // 回测验证(默认显示前50期命中详情) + $backtest = null; + if ($periods >= 30) { + $backtest = $this->_runBacktestNormalRelation($periods, 50); + } + + return [ + 'predictions' => $topPredictions, + 'all_predictions' => $predictions, + 'analysis' => $analysis, + 'actual_result' => $actualResult, + 'hit_info' => $hitInfo, + 'backtest' => $backtest + ]; + } + + /** + * 执行正码关联规律的历史回测(修正版) + * 使用正确规律:上期正码 → 当期特码 + * @param int $periods 回测期数 + * @param int $detailLimit 返回详情条数 + * @return array {hit_rate, avg_rank, details, rule_stats} + */ + private function _runBacktestNormalRelation($periods = 100, $detailLimit = 20) + { + $history = $this->field('expect,num1,num2,num3,num4,num5,num6,num7,openTime') + ->order('openTime', 'desc') + ->limit($periods + 1) + ->select(); + + if (count($history) < 2) { + return ['error' => '数据不足']; + } + + $num_model = new Num(); + $colorMap = $num_model->column('color', 'num'); + + // 大区间划分 + $getBigZone = function ($num) { + if ($num <= 10) return 'small'; + if ($num <= 30) return 'mid'; + return 'big'; + }; + + // 细区间划分 + $getFineZone = function ($num) { + if ($num <= 10) return 0; + if ($num <= 20) return 1; + if ($num <= 30) return 2; + if ($num <= 40) return 3; + return 4; + }; + + // 特码区间转移概率矩阵 + $zoneTransMatrix = [ + 'big' => ['big' => 35.77, 'mid' => 37.96, 'small' => 26.28], + 'mid' => ['big' => 33.77, 'mid' => 43.51, 'small' => 22.73], + 'small' => ['big' => 42.17, 'mid' => 42.17, 'small' => 15.66] + ]; + + $hits = 0; + $ranks = []; + $details = []; + $ruleHits = [ + 'zone_cover' => 0, + 'trans_match' => 0, + 'color_top2' => 0, + 'dist_3' => 0, + 'tail_2' => 0, + 'avg_10' => 0 + ]; + + for ($i = 0; $i < count($history) - 1; $i++) { + $currentRow = $history[$i]; + $prevRow = $history[$i + 1]; + + // 使用上一期的正码预测当期的特码 + $lastNormals = []; + for ($j = 1; $j <= 6; $j++) { + $lastNormals[] = (int)$prevRow['num' . $j]; + } + $lastSpecial = (int)$prevRow['num7']; + $actualSpecial = (int)$currentRow['num7']; + + // 分析上期正码特征 + $normalMin = min($lastNormals); + $normalMax = max($lastNormals); + $normalAvg = array_sum($lastNormals) / 6; + $normalSum = array_sum($lastNormals); + + // 波色分布 + $colorCounts = ['红' => 0, '蓝' => 0, '绿' => 0]; + foreach ($lastNormals as $n) { + $color = $colorMap[$n] ?? ''; + if (strpos($color, '红') !== false) $colorCounts['红']++; + elseif (strpos($color, '蓝') !== false) $colorCounts['蓝']++; + elseif (strpos($color, '绿') !== false) $colorCounts['绿']++; + } + $sortedColors = []; + foreach ($colorCounts as $c => $cnt) { + $sortedColors[] = ['color' => $c, 'count' => $cnt]; + } + usort($sortedColors, function ($a, $b) { return $b['count'] - $a['count']; }); + $top2Colors = [$sortedColors[0]['color'], $sortedColors[1]['color']]; + + // 上期正码覆盖的细区间 + $normalFineZones = []; + foreach ($lastNormals as $n) { + $zoneIdx = $getFineZone($n); + if (!in_array($zoneIdx, $normalFineZones)) { + $normalFineZones[] = $zoneIdx; + } + } + + // 上期特码所在大区间 + $lastSpecialBigZone = $getBigZone($lastSpecial); + + // 计算每个号码评分 + $scores = []; + for ($num = 1; $num <= 49; $num++) { + $numColor = $colorMap[$num] ?? ''; + $numBigZone = $getBigZone($num); + $numFineZone = $getFineZone($num); + + // 规律1:覆盖区间(91%) + $zoneCovered = in_array($numFineZone, $normalFineZones); + $zoneCoverScore = $zoneCovered ? 91 : 0; + + // 规律2:特码区间转移(77%) + $transProbs = $zoneTransMatrix[$lastSpecialBigZone]; + $sortedTrans = []; + foreach ($transProbs as $z => $p) { + $sortedTrans[] = ['zone' => $z, 'prob' => $p]; + } + usort($sortedTrans, function ($a, $b) { return $b['prob'] - $a['prob']; }); + $top2TransZones = [$sortedTrans[0]['zone'], $sortedTrans[1]['zone']]; + $transMatch = in_array($numBigZone, $top2TransZones); + $transScore = $transMatch ? 77 : 0; + + // 规律3:双波色(69%) + $colorInTop2 = false; + foreach ($top2Colors as $tc) { + if (strpos($numColor, $tc) !== false) { + $colorInTop2 = true; + break; + } + } + $colorScore = $colorInTop2 ? 69 : 0; + + // 规律4:距离≤3(59%) + $minDist = 49; + foreach ($lastNormals as $n) { + $dist = abs($num - $n); + if ($dist < $minDist) $minDist = $dist; + } + $distScore = $minDist <= 3 ? 59 : ($minDist <= 5 ? 40 : 0); + + // 规律5:尾数≤2(50%) + $tailDiff = abs($num % 10 - $normalSum % 10); + $tailDiff = min($tailDiff, 10 - $tailDiff); + $tailScore = $tailDiff <= 2 ? 50 : ($tailDiff <= 3 ? 30 : 0); + + // 规律6:平均值±10(42%) + $avgDiff = abs($num - $normalAvg); + $avgScore = $avgDiff <= 10 ? 42 : 0; + + // 综合评分 + $score = $zoneCoverScore * 0.30 + + $transScore * 0.25 + + $colorScore * 0.20 + + $distScore * 0.12 + + $avgScore * 0.08 + + $tailScore * 0.05; + + $scores[$num] = $score; + } + + // 排序找排名 + $sorted = []; + for ($num = 1; $num <= 49; $num++) { + $sorted[] = ['num' => $num, 'score' => $scores[$num]]; + } + usort($sorted, function ($a, $b) { + return $b['score'] - $a['score']; + }); + + $rank = -1; + foreach ($sorted as $idx => $item) { + if ($item['num'] === $actualSpecial) { + $rank = $idx + 1; + break; + } + } + + if ($rank > 0 && $rank <= 15) { + $hits++; + } + $ranks[] = $rank; + + // 统计各规律命中情况 + $actualFineZone = $getFineZone($actualSpecial); + $actualBigZone = $getBigZone($actualSpecial); + $actualColor = $colorMap[$actualSpecial] ?? ''; + $actualMinDist = 49; + foreach ($lastNormals as $n) { + $dist = abs($actualSpecial - $n); + if ($dist < $actualMinDist) $actualMinDist = $dist; + } + $actualTailDiff = abs($actualSpecial % 10 - $normalSum % 10); + $actualTailDiff = min($actualTailDiff, 10 - $actualTailDiff); + $actualAvgDiff = abs($actualSpecial - $normalAvg); + + if (in_array($actualFineZone, $normalFineZones)) $ruleHits['zone_cover']++; + if (in_array($actualBigZone, $top2TransZones)) $ruleHits['trans_match']++; + $actualColorInTop2 = false; + foreach ($top2Colors as $tc) { + if (strpos($actualColor, $tc) !== false) $actualColorInTop2 = true; + } + if ($actualColorInTop2) $ruleHits['color_top2']++; + if ($actualMinDist <= 3) $ruleHits['dist_3']++; + if ($actualTailDiff <= 2) $ruleHits['tail_2']++; + if ($actualAvgDiff <= 10) $ruleHits['avg_10']++; + + $details[] = [ + 'expect' => (string)$currentRow['expect'], + 'actual' => $actualSpecial, + 'rank' => $rank, + 'hit' => $rank > 0 && $rank <= 15 + ]; + } + + $totalPeriods = count($ranks); + $hitRate = $totalPeriods > 0 ? round($hits / $totalPeriods * 100, 2) : 0; + $avgRank = $totalPeriods > 0 ? round(array_sum($ranks) / $totalPeriods, 2) : 0; + + // 计算各规律实际命中率 + $ruleStats = []; + foreach ($ruleHits as $rule => $count) { + $ruleStats[$rule] = [ + 'hits' => $count, + 'rate' => $totalPeriods > 0 ? round($count / $totalPeriods * 100, 2) : 0 + ]; + } + + return [ + 'periods' => $totalPeriods, + 'hits' => $hits, + 'hit_rate' => $hitRate, + 'avg_rank' => $avgRank, + 'rule_stats' => $ruleStats, + 'details' => array_slice($details, 0, $detailLimit) + ]; + } + } diff --git a/application/admin/view/history/index.html b/application/admin/view/history/index.html index e9a1500..1f1844c 100644 --- a/application/admin/view/history/index.html +++ b/application/admin/view/history/index.html @@ -19,6 +19,8 @@ {:__('Tail Numbers')} 特码冷热 筛号器 + 智能预测 + 正码关联预测 diff --git a/public/assets/js/backend/history.js b/public/assets/js/backend/history.js index e62fa52..a6365ce 100644 --- a/public/assets/js/backend/history.js +++ b/public/assets/js/backend/history.js @@ -107,6 +107,11 @@ define(['jquery', 'bootstrap', 'backend', 'table', 'form'], function ($, undefin $(document).off('click', '.btn-predict').on('click', '.btn-predict', function () { Controller.api.showPredictDialog(); }); + + // 正码关联预测按钮事件 + $(document).off('click', '.btn-normal-relation').on('click', '.btn-normal-relation', function () { + Controller.api.showNormalRelationDialog(); + }); }, add: function () { Controller.api.bindevent(); @@ -1960,6 +1965,204 @@ define(['jquery', 'bootstrap', 'backend', 'table', 'form'], function ($, undefin html += ''; $('#predict-result', layero).html(html); + }, + + /** + * 显示正码关联预测弹窗(修正版) + * 核心规律:上期正码 → 当期特码 + */ + showNormalRelationDialog: function () { + var html = '
' + + '
' + + '
正码关联预测算法(修正版)
' + + '
' + + ' 核心逻辑:用上期正码(num1-6)预测当期特码(num7)
' + + ' 1. 覆盖区间规律(91.44%):当期特码在上期正码覆盖的细区间内
' + + ' 2. 特码区间转移(77.54%):基于上期特码区间预测当期特码大区间
' + + ' 3. 双波色预测(69.52%):当期特码波色在上期正码前2种主导波色内
' + + ' 4. 正码±3距离(59.36%):当期特码与上期正码某号码距离≤3
' + + ' 5. 尾数±2(50%):上期正码和值尾数与当期特码尾数差≤2
' + + ' 6. 平均值±10(41.98%):当期特码在上期正码平均值±10范围' + + '
' + + '
' + + '
' + + ' ' + + ' ' + + ' ' + + ' ' + + ' ' + + '
' + + '
' + + '
'; + + Layer.open({ + type: 1, + title: '正码关联预测(上期正码→当期特码)', + area: ['900px', '750px'], + content: html, + shadeClose: true, + success: function (layero, index) { + $('#btn-nr-query', layero).on('click', function () { + Controller.api.queryNormalRelation(layero); + }); + // 自动执行一次查询 + Controller.api.queryNormalRelation(layero); + } + }); + }, + + /** + * 查询正码关联预测 + */ + queryNormalRelation: function (layero) { + var $btn = $('#btn-nr-query', layero); + $btn.prop('disabled', true); + $('#nr-result', layero).html('
正在分析...
'); + + var periods = parseInt($('#nr-periods', layero).val()) || 100; + var targetExpect = $('#nr-target', layero).val().trim(); + + $.ajax({ + url: 'history/predictByNormalRelation', + type: 'GET', + data: { periods: periods, target_expect: targetExpect }, + dataType: 'json', + success: function (ret) { + if (ret.code == 1) { + Controller.api.renderNormalRelation(ret.data, layero); + } else { + $('#nr-result', layero).html('
' + (ret.msg || '查询失败') + '
'); + } + }, + error: function () { + $('#nr-result', layero).html('
查询失败
'); + }, + complete: function () { + $btn.prop('disabled', false); + } + }); + }, + + /** + * 渲染正码关联预测结果 + */ + renderNormalRelation: function (data, layero) { + if (!data || !data.predictions || data.predictions.length === 0) { + $('#nr-result', layero).html('
无预测结果
'); + return; + } + + var analysis = data.analysis || {}; + var predictions = data.predictions; + var hitInfo = data.hit_info; + var backtest = data.backtest; + + var html = ''; + + // 分析信息 + html += '
'; + html += '
上期开奖信息(预测基准)
'; + html += '
'; + html += '期号:' + analysis.last_expect + ' | '; + html += '正码:' + analysis.last_normals.join(', ') + ' | '; + html += '特码:' + analysis.last_special + '
'; + html += '正码范围:' + analysis.normal_min + ' ~ ' + analysis.normal_max + ' | '; + html += '平均值:' + analysis.normal_avg + ' | '; + html += '和值:' + analysis.normal_sum + '
'; + html += '正码波色:' + (analysis.top2_colors || analysis.normal_colors || []).join('/') + ' | '; + html += '覆盖区间:' + (analysis.normal_fine_zones || analysis.normal_zones || []).map(function(z) { + return ['1-10','11-20','21-30','31-40','41-49'][z]; + }).join(','); + html += '
'; + + // 预测号码展示 + html += '
'; + html += '
推荐号码(Top 15)
'; + html += '
'; + + for (var i = 0; i < predictions.length; i++) { + var p = predictions[i]; + var colorHex = Controller.api.getColorByNum(p.num); + var animal = Controller.api.animalMap[p.num] || ''; + + var bgColor = '#fff'; + var borderColor = '1px solid #ddd'; + if (i < 5) { + bgColor = '#fff8e1'; + borderColor = '2px solid #ffc107'; + } + + html += '
'; + html += '' + p.num + ''; + html += '
' + animal + '
'; + html += '
得分:' + p.score + '
'; + html += '
'; + html += (p.color_in_top2 || p.color_match) ? '✓波色 ' : ''; + html += '距离' + (p.min_distance || 0); + html += '
'; + html += '
'; + } + html += '
'; + + // 规律命中情况(如果有回测) + if (backtest) { + html += '
'; + html += '
回测验证(最近' + backtest.periods + '期)
'; + html += '
'; + html += '命中率(Top15内):' + backtest.hit_rate + '% (' + backtest.hits + '/' + backtest.periods + ')
'; + html += '平均排名:' + backtest.avg_rank + ' / 49
'; + html += '注:命中率越高越好,平均排名越低越好'; + html += '
'; + + // 显示前50期命中详情表格 + if (backtest.details && backtest.details.length > 0) { + html += '
'; + html += ''; + html += ''; + html += ''; + for (var d = 0; d < backtest.details.length; d++) { + var det = backtest.details[d]; + var hitBadge = det.hit ? '' : ''; + var rankColor = det.rank <= 5 ? '#2e7d32' : (det.rank <= 15 ? '#ff9800' : '#c62828'); + html += ''; + html += ''; + html += ''; + html += ''; + html += ''; + html += ''; + } + html += '
期号特码排名命中
' + det.expect + '' + det.actual + '' + det.rank + '' + hitBadge + '
'; + html += '
'; + } + html += '
'; + } + + // 实际命中情况(如果有目标期号) + if (hitInfo) { + var hitBg = hitInfo.hit ? '#e8f5e9' : '#ffebee'; + var hitColor = hitInfo.hit ? '#2e7d32' : '#c62828'; + html += '
'; + html += '
'; + html += hitInfo.hit ? '✓ 命中!排名:' + hitInfo.rank_in_top + ' / 15' : '✗ 未命中,排名:' + hitInfo.rank_in_all + ' / 49'; + html += '
'; + html += '
实际特码:' + hitInfo.actual_num + ' (' + hitInfo.actual_color + '/' + hitInfo.actual_animal + ') 期号:' + hitInfo.actual_expect + '
'; + html += '
'; + } + + // 规律说明表 + if (analysis.rules) { + html += '
'; + html += '
规律命中率表
'; + html += ''; + html += ''; + for (var r = 0; r < analysis.rules.length; r++) { + var rule = analysis.rules[r]; + html += ''; + } + html += '
规律名称命中率说明
' + rule.name + '' + rule.rate + '' + rule.desc + '
'; + } + + $('#nr-result', layero).html(html); } } };